Human Health Effects of Ozone Depletion From Stratospheric

1,50

MB

Aircraft

138

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1076

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UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

2001

rok

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1. Introduction and Background 11

1.1 Potential atmospheric and biological impacts of stratospheric flight 11

1.1.1 How HSCT may contribute to ozone depletion 11

1.1.2 Current assessment of atmospheric impacts from stratospheric aircraft 12

1.1.2.a. NASA’s Assessment of the Effects of High-Speed Aircraft in the Stratosphere. 13

1.1.2.b. Aviation and the Global Atmosphere (IPCC 1999) 15

1.1.3 Biological effects of stratospheric ozone depletion 16

1.2 Relevant U.S. and international authorities and agencies 18

1.2.1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 18

1.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 20

1.2.3 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) 20

1.2.4 International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 21

1.2.5 Montreal Protocol 22

1.2.6 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 23

1.3 Commercial interest in supersonic technologies 25

1.3.1 Civil supersonic transport 25

1.3.2 Space and defense 26

1.3.3 Supersonic business jets 26

Chapter 2. Methods 27

2.1 Modeling overview 29

2.2 Estimated HSCT-induced ozone change 31

2.2.1 NASA assessment selection of source of central values 31

2.2.2 Adaptation of CSIRO data and fleet growth schedule 32

2.2.2.a. Adaptation of CSIRO data 32

2.2.2.b. Specification of fleet growth schedule 34

2.3 Calculation of UVR change 36

2.4 Calculation of health impacts 38

2.4.1 Human health endpoints 41

2.4.2 Other human health and environmental effects 44

2.4.3 Action spectra 45

2.4.4 Dose metrics 47

2.5 Model implementation 48

2.6 Uncertainty in estimated impacts 49

2.6.1 Uncertainties associated with change in ozone estimates 50

2.6.2 Uncertainties associated with change in UVR estimates 53

2.6.3 Uncertainties associated with change in health effect estimates 55

2.6.3.a. Uncertainty in the BAF 55

2.6.3.b. Uncertainty in population projections 55

2.6.3.c. Latency 56

2.6.4 Other sources of uncertainty 57

2.6.4.a. Contributions to unknown uncertainties in change in ozone estimates 57

2.6.4.b. Contributions to unknown uncertainties in change in health effect estimates 58

2.7 Sensitivity of estimated health impacts to technological and operational change 60

Chapter 3. Results and Discussion 63

3.1 HSCT impacts of stratospheric ozone concentrations 63

3.1.1 Annual percent change in ozone 63

3.1.2 Seasonal patterns 65

3.1.3 Latitudinal patterns 67

3.2 HSCT impacts on UVR 67

3.2.1 Seasonal patterns 70

3.2.2 Latitudinal patterns 70

3.3 HSCT impacts on human health 70

3.3.1 Total incidence and mortality due to HSCT operation 71

3.3.2 Seasonal patterns 72

3.3.3 Latitudinal patterns 73

3.3.4 Estimates of annual changes in health effects 74

3.4 Uncertainty analyses 79

3.4.1 Uncertainties associated with change in ozone estimates 81

3.4.2 Uncertainties associated with change in UVR estimates 81

3.4.3 Uncertainties associated with change in health effects estimates 82

3.4.3.a. Uncertainty in population projections 82

3.4.3.b. Latency 83

3.4.4 Summary of uncertainty analyses 85

3.5 Sensitivity to technological and operational change 86

Chapter 4. Synthesis 89

4.1 Findings in context of past ODS regulatory activities 89

4.1.1 Description of the Montreal Protocol: Amendments and adjustments 89

4.1.2 Comparison of HSCT with ODS policy scenarios 91

4.1.3 Other stratospheric protection actions within and beyond

Montreal Protocol requirements 95

4.2 Applicability of results to other scenarios 97

Chapter 5. References 99

Appendix A - Overview of Evaluation Methodology 105

Appendix B - Description of the CSIRO Model 107

Appendix C - Methodological Sensitivity: Use of Relative Versus Absolute Ozone Change 109

Appendix D - Background Information on RAFs 111

Appendix E - Information and Future Directions for Cataract Methodology 115

Appendix F - Sensitivity to Choice of Reference Scenario 119

Appendix G - Summary of ODS Policy Controls 121