PROLIFERATION: THREAT AND RESPONSE

4,81
MB

138
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1393
ID Department of Defense

2001
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Table Of Contents

INTRODUCTION

SECTION I-NBC PROLIFERATION CHALLENGES

NBC PROLIFERATION CHALLENGES

New Suppliers 3

Improved Weapons 4

NBC Use and Asymmetric Military Strategic 4

EAST ASIA 7

U.S. Goals and Interests 7

Capabilities, Intentions, and Trends 8

North Korea 9

China. 13

Conclusion. 18

SOUTH ASIA 21

U.S. Goals and Interests 21

Capabilities, Intentions, and Trends 22

India 22

Pakistan. 25

Conclusion. 30

THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA 33

U.S. Goals and Interests 33

Capabilities, Intentions, and Trends 34

Iran 34

Iraq 38

Syria 42

Libya 45

Sudan 49

Conclusion. 49

RUSSIA 53

U.S. Goals and Interests 53

Capabilities, Intentions, and Trends 53

Conclusion. 58

TRANSNATIONAL THREATS 61

U.S. Goals and Interests 61

Introduction 61

Terrorism. 61

Security of NBC Materials 63

Threat to Agriculture and Livestock 64

Conclusion. 66

SECTION II-DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE RESPONSE PREVENTION 70

Denial 70

DoD Office of Secretary of Defense-Critical Technology Program. 70

Enhanced Proliferation Control Initiative 71

Wassenaar Arrangement on Export Controls for Conventional Arms and Dual-Use Goods and

Technologies. 71

Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) 72

Australia Group. 72

Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) 72

Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Exporters (Zangger)

Committee 73

NPT Review Conference.73

Cooperative Threat Reduction 73

DoD/U.S. Customs Service Counterproliferation Program 76

DoD/Federal Bureau of Investigation Counterproliferation Program 76

PROTECTION 77

The National Security Strategy 77

Integration of and Responsibilities for Counterproliferation Missions Within DoD. 78

Counterproliferation Council 78

Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). 79

International Counterproliferation Cooperation 80

ACQUISITION 83

The Counterproliferation Program Review Committee (CPRC) 83

The Department of Defense Chemical and Biological Defense Program. 85

Technology Development Responsive to Counterproliferation Requirements 89

Counterterror Technical Support Program 89

Counterforce Capability Against Adversary Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Infrastructure. 89

Counterproliferation Analysis Planning System (CAPS) 91

Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrations (ACTDs) 91

Counterproliferation Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration 91

Additional Counterproliferation ACTDs 92

Improved Capabilities Against Hardened Targets 92

The Challenge of Developing Biological Weapons Detection Systems. 92

Medical Countermeasures for WMD Defense 94

Ballistic Missile Defense. 95

CONSEQUENCE MANAGEMENT 104

Domestic Preparedness Program. 104

DoD Capabilities for Consequence Management 105

Foreign Consequence Management 108

CONCLUSION 109

ANNEXES

A-Threat Characteristics 113

Nuclear and Radiological 113

Biological Agents 114

Chemical Agents 114

Delivery Means 115

B-Treaty Status for Countries of Concern 117

C-Biological Weapons Detection Technology 119

GLOSSARY 123

GRAPHICS AND TABLES

THE REGIONAL PROLIFERATION CHALLENGE

East Asia

Taepo Dong 1 Launch. 7

North Korea: NBC Weapons and Missile Programs. 10

Estimated Ranges of Current and Potential North Korean Ballistic Missiles 12

China: NBC Weapons and Missile Programs 14

Estimated Ranges of Current and Potential Chinese Ballistic Missiles 16

Selected Chinese Proliferation Activity During the 1990s 18

South Asia

India: NBC Weapons and Missile Programs 24

Estimated Ranges of Current and Potential Indian Ballistic Missiles. 26

Pakistan: NBC Weapons and Missile Programs 28

Estimated Ranges of Current and Potential Pakistani Ballistic Missiles 29

The Middle East and Africa

Iran: NBC Weapons and Missile Programs 35

Estimated Ranges of Current and Potential Iranian Ballistic Missiles 37

Iraq: NBC Weapons and Missile Programs 39

Estimated Ranges of Current and Potential Iraqi Ballistic Missiles 41

Syria: NBC Weapons and Missile Programs 43

Estimated Ranges of Current and Potential Syrian Ballistic Missiles 44

Libya: NBC Weapons and Missile Programs 46

Estimated Ranges of Current and Potential Libyan Ballistic Missiles 48

Russia

Russia: NBC Weapons and Missile Programs 54

Operational Strategic Nuclear Warheads 55

Operational Strategic Nuclear Delivery Vehicles 55

Transnational Threat

Usama Bin Laden 61

Foreign Livestock and Plant Pathogens Which Can Threaten U.S. Agricultural Productivity 66

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE RESPONSE

Improved Chemical Agent Monitor 86

Biological Integrated Detection System 86

Interim Biological Agent Detector 86

M93A1 NBC Reconnaissance System "Fox" 87

Automatic Chemical Agent Detector/Alarm. 87

Joint Service Lightweight Integrated Suit Technology. 88

M40A1 Protective Masks 88

Anthrax and Other Vaccines 95

Mark I Nerve Agent Antidote Kit 98

ANNEXES

Biological Warfare Agents Characteristics 113

Common Chemical Warfare Agents 114

Ballistic Missile Ranges 115

Nonproliferation Treaty and Regime Adherence 117