ENLARGEMENT FUTURES PROJECT: Expert Panel on Economic

0,77

MB

Transformation

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stron

1837

ID

INSTITUTE FOR PROSPECTIVE TECHNOLOGICAL STUDIES

2001

rok

Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS . 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5

1. INTRODUCTION. 9

2. THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE ECONOMIC CATCHING-UP PROCESS. 11

2.1. THE CROSSING OF EMPLOYMENT TRENDS. 14

2.2. THE PATCHWORK OF REGIONAL GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE . 17

2.3. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: A MIXED BLESSING? 21

2.4. FINDING THE RIGHT MIX OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES 26

2.4.1. The declining role of agriculture 26

2.4.2. The increasing role of services. 27

2.4.3. Privatisation: a bridge too far? 28

2.4.4. The trend towards smaller businesses 31

2.5. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND INNOVATION. 33

2.5.1. The technology gap model 34

2.5.2. The legal framework . 35

2.5.3. The financial framework. 35

2.5.4. Own market development . 36

2.5.5. Sectoral trends. 38

2.6. BUSINESS ACTIVITY AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP . 48

2.6.1. The role of trans-national corporations. 49

2.6.2. Business start-ups 53

2.6.3. Venture capital 55

2.7. Intellectual property rights 56

2.8. THE PATTERNS OF SPECIALISATION AND TRADE. 68

2.8.1. Comparative advantages 69

2.8.2. Competitive advantages 72

3. THE SIX MAIN CHALLENGES IDENTIFIED BY THE PANEL77

3.1. THE AGEING OF THE POPULATION. 77

3.2. ICT DIFFUSION/PRODUCTION/USE 79

3.3. THE RETOOLING OF THE AGRI-FOOD CHAIN 81

3.4. THE GEOGRAPHY OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES . 85

3.5. THE DYNAMICS OF HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION. 87

3.6. THE ECONOMICS OF SUSTAINABILITY.88

4. CONCLUSION 91

PANEL MEMBERS . 93

REFERENCES 95

ANNEX A1 BULGARIA: SIRMA CASE STUDY.100

ANNEX A2 BULGARIA: EPIQ CASE STUDY.112

ANNEX B - SLOVENIA: FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TRENDS, FACTORS AND PROSPECTS

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