ASSESSING THE ENVIRONMENTAL POTENTIAL OF CLEAN

0,99
MB MATERIAL TECHNOLOGIES

117
stron

1846
ID INSTITUTE FOR PROSPECTIVE TECHNOLOGICAL STUDIES

2003
rok

Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. III

Introduction iii

Current material demands and related environmental impactsiii

Future material demands and related environmental impacts . iv

Key technologies to reduce environmental impact iv

Environmental effects of adopting clean technologiesvi

Conclusions vi

1 INTRODUCTION . 1

1.1 Objectives and limitations of the study 1

1.2 Approach and structure of the report 1

2 CURRENT MATERIAL CONSUMPTION . 3

2.1 Introduction. 3

2.2 System boundaries . 3

2.3 Current material use . 3

2.3.1 Data sources . 3

2.3.2 Construction 5

2.3.3 Packaging 6

2.3.4 Transportation 7

2.3.5 Goods (machinery, furniture, consumer durables) . 8

2.3.6 Overview. 9

2.4 Conclusions. 12

3 ANALYSING THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS RELATED TO MATERIALS 13

3.1 Introduction. 13

3.2 Environmental impact indicators . 13

3.3 Environmental impact of materials 16

3.4 Environmental impacts of application areas. 18

3.5 Relevance of the material sector in total environmental impact. 19

3.6 Conclusions. 21

4 EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS IN APPLICATION AREAS. 22

4.1 Introduction. 22

4.2 Construction . 22

4.2.1 Buildings 22

4.2.2 Infrastructure. 23

4.3 Transport . 24

4.3.1 Automotive 24

4.3.2 Aviation . 24

4.4 Products. 25

4.4.1 Consumer durables. 25

4.4.2 Consumer disposables 26

4.4.3 ICT equipment . 26

4.5 Packaging 27

4.5.1 Food packaging 27

4.5.2 Non-food packaging. 27

4.6 Energy technologies . 28

4.6.1 Energy conversion 28

4.6.2 Energy storage . 29

4.7 Conclusions. 30

5 PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE MATERIAL CONSUMPTION. 31

5.1 Introduction. 31

5.2 Projections assuming autonomous technological progress 31

5.2.1 Approach for projecting material production and consumption. 31

5.2.2 Approach for projecting waste generation . 32

5.2.3 Data sources . 33

5.2.4 Results for bulk materials 34

5.2.4.1 Steel . 34

5.2.4.2 Aluminium. 36

5.2.4.3 Plastics . 38

5.2.4.4 Paper and board 40

5.2.4.5 Cement . 42

5.2.4.6 Glass 43

5.2.4.7 Conclusion . 45

5.3 Frozen matter projection 47

5.3.1 Approach. 47

5.3.2 Results. 48

5.4 Estimates from other sources . 49

5.5 Comparing projections . 51

6 THE POTENTIAL OF CLEAN TECHNOLOGIES 53

6.1 Introduction. 53

6.2 Key technologies. 53

6.3 Potential contributions to the reduction of environmental impacts 58

6.4 Conclusions. 65

7 SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE MATERIAL SECTOR 66

7.1 Introduction. 66

7.2 Definition of the scenarios . 66

7.3 Results. 67

7.4 Conclusions. 87

8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. 88

8.1 Introduction. 88

8.2 General conclusions . 88

8.3 Conclusions from case studies . 90

8.4 Conclusions from the workshop. 91

8.5 Towards technology road maps and measures to stimulate the diffusion of clean technologies .

92

8.6 Recommendations on research and technological development and technology implementation .

93

8.7 Recommendations on tools and systems analyses 94

9 REFERENCES . 96