Scenarios of Household Waste Generation in 2020

2,35

MB

132

stron

1856

ID

INSTITUTE FOR PROSPECTIVE TECHNOLOGICAL STUDIES

2004

rok

Table of contents

1. INTRODUCTION 13

1.1. Rationale for the project 13

1.2. Objectives and project approach 13

1.3. Work packages 14

2. Household WASTE FRACTIONS 17

2.1. Introduction 17

2.2. The composition of daily household waste 17

2.2.1. Introduction 17

2.2.2. Division into fractions in EU-15 countries 19

2.2.3. Subdivision of the main fractions 22

2.3. Functions in the household 24

2.4. The composition of (irregular) bulky waste 26

2.5. Conclusion 27

3. Qualitative scenario building 31

3.1. Introduction 31

3.2. Scenario method 31

3.3. Key question and prioritisation of trends and developments 32

3.3.1. Introduction 32

3.3.2. Key question 32

3.3.3. Listing trends and developments 34

3.3.4. Clustering and prioritising trends and developments 34

3.3.5. Axes of the scenario matrix 35

3.4. Qualitative scenarios 36

3.4.1. Introduction 36

3.4.2. Scenario 1: Media@home 37

3.4.3. Scenario 2: On the road 39

3.4.4. Scenario 3: Comfort community 40

3.4.5. Scenario 4: Home sweet home 42

3.5. Summary and overview 43

4. Quantitative scenario Analysis 49

4.1. Introduction 49

4.2. The baseline scenario 49

4.2.1. Introduction 49

4.2.2. Available data on population, household size and private expenditure 50

4.2.3. Conclusions: Baseline scenario for 2020 51

4.3. Modelling indoor versus outdoor activity and (de) materialisation

within the functions 52

4.3.1. Structure of the model 52

4.3.2. Parameters in the model 54

4.3.3. Quantification of the parameters in the model 56

4.4. Results and discussion 60

4.4.1. Results 60

4.4.2. Discussion 62

5. Policy implications and conclusions 65

5.1. Introduction 65

5.2. Key waste fractions and current policies 65

5.3. Implications of scenario 1: Media@home 66

5.4. Implications of scenario 2: On the road 67

5.5. Implications of scenario 3: Comfort community 68

5.6. Implications of scenario 4: Home sweet home 69

5.7. Review 69

6. References 71

Annexes 73

A. Participants in the first workshop of 24 May 2002 73

B. Input for the workshop of 24 May 2002 74

C. Prioritisation of uncertainties in the workshop of 24 May 2002 87

D. Main uncertainties including the underlying questions 88

E. Impact of the trends on waste generation per function 94

F. Participants in the workshop of 6 September 2002 97

G. Printout of the calculation model 98