| | Impacts of ICTs on Transport and Mobility (ICTRANS) |
| | 0,72 | | MB |
| | 153 | | stron |
| | 1861 | | ID | INSTITUTE FOR PROSPECTIVE TECHNOLOGICAL STUDIES |
| | 2004 | | rok |
| | TABLE OF CONTENTS |
| | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.V |
| | 1 INTRODUCTION . 1 |
| | 1.1 Background . 1 |
| | 1.2 Challenges. 1 |
| | 1.3 Objectives 2 |
| | 1.4 Approach and methodology . 4 |
| | 1.5 Structure of the report 6 |
| | 2 TRANSPORT AND MOBILITY IMPACTS OF ICT: THE CURRENT KNOWLEDGE 7 |
| | 2.1 Traditional views 7 |
| | 2.2 New interpretations 7 |
| | 2.3 Impacts of ICT on Transport and Mobility in the sphere “Living” 9 |
| | 2.4 Impacts of ICT on transport and mobility in the sphere “Working” 13 |
| | 2.5 Impacts of ICT on transport and mobility in the sphere “Producing” 16 |
| | 2.6 Unresolved questions and research needs 19 |
| | 3 CONTEXTUAL DEVELOPMENTS IN ICT AND SOCIETY: TRENDS AND FRAMEWORK |
| | SCENARIOS FOR E-SOCIETY 2010/2015 . 21 |
| | 3.1 Socio-economic and technological trends 21 |
| | 3.2 Framework scenarios for “e-society” 2010/2015 . 22 |
| | 3.2.1 Scenario “The New New Economy“ 23 |
| | 3.2.2 Scenario “Big Business as Usual” 25 |
| | 3.2.3 Scenario “Smart Social Policies” . 26 |
| | 3.3 Summary of framework scenarios 29 |
| | 4 TRANSPORT IMPACTS IN SCENARIOS AND ISSUES FOR POLICY 33 |
| | 4.1 From frameworks scenarios to policy options 33 |
| | 4.2 Policy implications of the ICTRANS scenarios. 34 |
| | 4.3 Robust and adaptive options for policy: a cross-scenarios perspective 39 |
| | 4.3.1 Issue 1: The coordination of manufacturing, logistics and distribution . 40 |
| | 4.3.2 Issue 2: Making distance working reduce transport demand . 42 |
| | 4.3.3 Issue 3: Matching customised mobility services with diversified lifestyles and attitudes 45 |
| | 4.3.4 Issue 4: Avoiding digital divides that limit the potential positive impacts of ICT on transport . |
| | 47 |
| | 4.3.5 Issue 5: Turning relative cost increases in transport into a benefit 49 |
| | 4.3.6 Issue 6: Lock-in and how to overcome it . 50 |
| | 5 CONCLUSIONS. 53 |
| | 5.1 General conclusions . 53 |
| | 5.2 Policy options and the current policy agendas . 54 |
| | REFERENCES 59 |
| | BACKGROUND PAPER 1: WORKING |
| | 1 TELEWORKING. 65 |
| | 1.1 Problems and Issues . 65 |
| | 1.2 Possibilities 65 |
| | 1.2.1 The Quantitative Significance of Telework . 66 |
| | 1.3 About the Mobility Effect 70 |
| | 1.4 Policy 72 |
| | 2 SELF-EMPLOYMENT. 73 |
| | 2.1 Issues and problems . 73 |
| | 2.2 Possibilities 73 |
| | 2.3 Trends in self-employment. 74 |
| | 2.4 Policies 74 |
| | 3 TELESHOPPING. 75 |
| | 3.1 Problems and Issues . 75 |
| | 3.2 Possibilities 75 |
| | 3.2.1 Business to Customers (B2C) 75 |
| | 3.2.2 Business to Business (B2B) . 78 |
| | 3.3 Policy 81 |
| | Executive Summary |
| | 4 MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS. 83 |
| | 4.1 Problems and Issues . 83 |
| | 4.2 Possibilities 83 |
| | 5 LOGISTIC SERVICES. 85 |
| | 5.1 Problems and Issues . 85 |
| | 5.2 Possibilities 85 |
| | 5.3 Policies 87 |
| | 6 LITERATURE 89 |
| | BACKGROUND PAPER 2: PRODUCING |
| | 1 PROBLEMS AND ISSUES. 95 |
| | 2 DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS. 97 |
| | 2.1 Manufacturing systems 97 |
| | 2.2 Transport and logistics . 99 |
| | 2.2.1 Structure of the supply chain 99 |
| | 2.2.2 Alignment of the supply chain . 100 |
| | 2.2.3 Product flow scheduling. 102 |
| | 2.2.4 The management of logistics resources . 102 |
| | 2.2.5 Product configuration. 104 |
| | 2.2.6 Possible impacts of ICT in logistics and transport . 104 |
| | 3 CHALLENGES FOR MEASURING THE IMPACT OF ICT ON TRANSPORT IN THE |
| | PRODUCTION DOMAIN 107 |
| | 3.1 The impact assessment problem in the production domain 107 |
| | 3.2 The state of current knowledge 108 |
| | 3.2.1 Impacts on general transport demand. 108 |
| | 3.2.2 Impacts on transport modality 109 |
| | 3.2.3 Impacts on transport processes and methods . 110 |
| | 4 CONCLUSIONS. 113 |
| | 5 REFERENCES 115 |
| | BACKGROUND PAPER 3: LIVING |
| | 1 INTRODUCTION . 123 |
| | 1.1 Transport and mobility as a social dilemma. 123 |
| | 1.2 Problems and solutions 123 |
| | 1.3 Divergence and convergence . 124 |
| | 1.4 Conclusion . 125 |
| | 2 POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS AND IMPACTS. 127 |
| | 2.1 ICT in households – possible impacts on transport 128 |
| | 2.1.1 Potential substitution effects 128 |
| | 2.1.2 Neither generation nor substitution 129 |
| | 2.1.3 Generation of mobility . 130 |
| | 2.1.4 Conclusions 131 |
| | 2.2 ICT in urban areas – possible impacts on transport . 132 |
| | 2.2.1 ICT to enhance efficiency and capacity in urban areas 132 |
| | 2.2.2 ICT and spatial developments 133 |
| | 2.2.3 Conclusions 133 |
| | 2.3 ICT in the mobility system – possible impacts on transport 134 |
| | 2.3.1 ICT and customised mobility . 134 |
| | 2.3.2 Electronic pricing and ticketing . 135 |
| | 2.3.3 Conclusions 136 |
| | 3 POLICIES – CHALLENGES AND IMPLICATIONS 137 |
| | 3.1 Key themes in EU policies and their implications . 137 |
| | 3.2 Policy trends and possible trend breaks . 139 |
| | 3.3 Conclusions. 141 |
| | 4 LITERATURE 143 |