Environment-Related Structural Indicators in New Member

2,08
MB States and Candidate Countries

122
stron

1864
ID INSTITUTE FOR PROSPECTIVE TECHNOLOGICAL STUDIES

2004
rok

Table of contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7

1 General Introduction 13

1.1 Background 13

1.2 Objectives and scope 13

1.3 Project approach 15

1.4 Overall scenarios 15

2 Energy and Climate Change Indicators 17

2.1 Introduction 17

2.2 ‘Business as Usual’ (Baseline) scenario 18

2.2.1 Key assumptions 18

2.2.1.1 Demographic and Weather Assumptions 18

2.2.1.2 Macroeconomic Assumptions 19

2.2.1.3 Price Assumptions 22

2.2.1.4 Policy Assumptions 22

2.2.1.5 Environmental Assumptions 24

2.2.1.6 Other Assumptions 24

2.2.1.7 Committed investment and decommissioning in power generation 24

2.2.2 Baseline scenario results 24

2.2.2.1 Main Findings 24

2.2.2.2 Primary Energy Needs 26

2.2.2.3 Final Energy Demand projections 30

2.2.2.4 Electricity and steam generation 35

2.2.2.5 CO2 emissions 40

2.3 Alternative scenarios examined 43

2.3.1 Definition of alternative scenarios 43

2.3.2 Climate change policy scenario (KYO) results 45

2.3.3 Rapid economic growth (LGR) scenario 52

2.3.4 Renewable electricity (RES) scenario 59

2.3.5 High internationally traded hydrocarbon fuel prices (HPR) scenario 65

2.4 Concluding remarks 72

3 Transport Indicators 73

3.1 Introduction 73

3.2 Current situation and past trends 73

3.2.1 Passenger transport 73

3.2.2 Freight transport 75

3.3 Methodology 79

3.4 Baseline scenario 82

3.5 Climate policy scenario 83

3.6 Rapid economic growth scenario 88

3.7 High oil prices scenario 91

3.8 Concluding remarks 92

4 Techno-Economic Outlook on the Waste indicators 95

4.1 Introduction 95

4.2 Municipal solid waste (MSW) 96

4.2.1 Current situation 96

4.2.2 Assessment GHG emission 98

4.2.3 Employment assessment 98

4.2.4 Future perspective 99

4.3 Waste from coal mining 102

4.3.1 Current situation 102

4.3.2 Future perspective 103

4.4 WASTE FROM COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS 105

4.4.1 Current situation 105

4.4.2 GHG emission assessment 106

4.4.3 Future perspective 107

4.5 Waste from the iron and steel industry 110

4.5.1 Current situation 110

4.5.2 GHG emission assessment 111

4.5.3 Future perspective 112

4.6 Concluding remarks 114