Recent Results of Global Climate Change Research and

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Assessment of Carbon Sequestration under the Joint

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Implementation Scheme

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JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

1999

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Table of Contents

- LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS. 5

- LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES 6

- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. 7

1. INTRODUCTION12

2. PART I - CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH RESULTS.13

2.1 EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE.13

2.1.1 Present and Historic Climatological Variability.13

2.1.2 Palaeoclimatological Variability 16

2.1.3 Climate Modelling 20

2.2 MAJOR DRIVING FORCES OF CLIMATE21

2.2.1 External Forcing.21

2.2.2 Internal Forcing and Feedback Mechanisms31

3. PART II - CLIMATE POLICY: JOINT IMPLEMENTATION AND CARBON SEQUESTRATION

THROUGH LAND-USE MEASURES.37

3.1 JOINT IMPLEMENTATION 37

3.1.1 The Concept 37

3.1.2 Beneficial Aspects.38

3.1.3 Concerns39

3.1.4 Types of Joint Implementation 43

3.1.5 International Experience with Joint Implementation 44

3.2 CARBON SEQUESTRATION THROUGH LAND-USE 47

3.2.1 Carbon Sequestration through Forestry Activities48

3.2.2 Carbon Sequestration through Agricultural Activities51

3.2.3 The Determination of the Baseline54

3.2.4 Costs of Carbon Sequestration56

3.2.5 Global Land Availability.60

3.2.6 Timing62

3.2.7 Barriers of Carbon Sequestration .62

3.3 SET OF CRITERIA FOR CARBON SEQUESTRATION UNDER A JOINT IMPLEMENTATION

CONCEPT 75

3.3.1 Definition of Baseline and Monitoring76

3.3.2 Forest Management and Agricultural Practices.78

3.3.3 Verification and Crediting 79

3.3.4 Reduction of Risk of Leakages . .80

4. CONCLUDING REMARKS. .81