Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications

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NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

2005

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Our climate model, driven mainly by increasing human-made greenhouse gases and aerosols,

among other forcings, calculates that Earth is now absorbing 0.85 T 0.15 watts per square meter

more energy from the Sun than it is emitting to space. This imbalance is confirmed by precise

measurements of increasing ocean heat content over the past 10 years. Implications include (i) the

expectation of additional global warming of about 0.6-C without further change of atmospheric

composition; (ii) the confirmation of the climate system’s lag in responding to forcings, implying the

need for anticipatory actions to avoid any specified level of climate change; and (iii) the likelihood

of acceleration of ice sheet disintegration and sea level rise.