ENERGY DYNAMICS AND CLIMATE STABILISATION

1,66

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163

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2364

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

2002

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Foreword 3

Acknowledgements . 5

Introduction. 11

1. Climate change and decision-making 19

Reality of climate change . 19

Stabilisation dynamics . 23

Decision-making under uncertainty. 28

Certainty versus stringency 34

2. Choices in the energy sector. . 39

The predominance of energy-related emissions 39

Energy savings come first. 45

Fuel switching . 50

Non-carbon emitting energy sources 54

3. Current commitments 59

The need for international co-operation 59

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

and its Kyoto Protocol . 62

Likely effects of current commitments . 69

4. Inducing change . 79

Learning-by-doing. 79

Co-ordinated policies and measures . 82

Ancillary benefits and sustainable development . 89

7

Promises and limits of financial assistance

and the Clean Development Mechanism 93

5. Future Commitments: timing, allocation and structure. 99

Timing 100

Allocation 106

6. Options for future agreements. 117

Uncertainties are the problem 117

The price cap. 120

Zero price cap: the non-binding target option . 127

The dynamic target option 132

Conclusion 143

Appendix: Certainty versus stringency . 147

List of Abbreviations and Acronyms 155

References. 157