Prospective Analysis of the Potential Non Conventional World Oil

0,69

MB

Supply: Tar Sands, Oil Shales and Non Conventional Liquid Fuels

81

stron

from Coal and Gas

2590

ID

INSTITUTE FOR PROSPECTIVE TECHNOLOGICAL STUDIES

2006

rok

Table of contents

PREFACE. 4

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. 5

1 TAR SANDS AND EXTRA-HEAVY OILS . 8

1.1 EVALUATION OF RESOURCES IN PLACE AND RECOVERABILITY . 8

1.1.1 Tar sands. 8

1.1.2 Extra-heavy oils 9

1.2 EXISTING, PAST AND FUTURE PROJECTS FOR COMMERCIAL EXPLOITATION.. 10

1.2.1 Tar sands.. 10

1.2.2 Extra-heavy oils. 14

1.3 KNOWN EXTRACTION AND UPGRADING TECHNOLOGIES, INVESTMENT AND OPERATING

COSTS . 16

1.3.1 Extraction technologies. 16

1.3.2 Transportation technologies. 20

1.3.3 Upgrading technologies . 21

1.4 CO2 EMISSIONS AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 23

1.4.1 Atmospheric emissions 23

1.4.2 Water use and conservation . 24

1.4.3 Tailings and by-products 25

1.5 MAIN INPUTS FOR THE DATABASE AND MODEL.. 26

1.6 MAIN REFERENCES. 26

2 OIL SHALE.. 28

2.1 EVALUATION OF RESOURCES IN PLACE AND RECOVERABILITY .. 28

2.2 WORLDWIDE PRODUCTION AND EXPLOITATION PROJECTS 30

2.2.1 Worldwide oil shale and synthetic oil production . 30

2.2.2 Present and future production projects .. 30

2.2.3 Past production projects 33

2.3 KNOWN PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES AND THE PYROLYSIS PROCESS . 35

2.3.1 Surface pyrolysis .. 35

2.3.2 In-situ pyrolysis . 37

2.3.3 Summary of pyrolysis process . 38

2.4 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES. 38

2.4.1 CO2 emissions - from oil well to petrol tank. 38

2.4.2 Air quality. 38

2.4.3 Water quality .. 39

2.4.4 Spent shale disposal . 39

2.5 MAIN INPUTS FOR THE DATABASE AND MODEL.. 40

2.6 MAIN REFERENCES. 40

3 WORLD GTL PROSPECTS .. 41

3.1. BACKGROUND . 41

3.2 TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC BACKGROUND . 41

3.3 COUNTRIES WITH GTL POTENTIAL .. 42

3.3.1 Analysis by country .. 42

3.3.2 Analysis by field 46

3.4 PROJECTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT, PLANNED OR ANNOUNCED. 48

3.5 END-MARKET TRENDS (DIESEL) . 50

3.6 GAS-TO-LIQUIDS AND CO2.. 50

3.6.1 International action on greenhouse gases. 50

3.6.2 Kyoto Protocol implementation.. 51

3.6.3 "Well-to-wheel" analysis 51

3.6.4 Impact of Kyoto on GTL development. 53

3.7 CONCLUSION - GTL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL 54

3.8 MAIN INPUTS FOR THE DATABASE AND MODEL.. 54

3.9 MAIN REFERENCES. 56

4 COAL TO LIQUIDS .. 57

4.1 EVALUATION OF WORLDWIDE COAL RESERVES . 57

4.2 KNOWN PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES, INVESTMENT AND OPERATING COSTS . 60

4.2.1 Carbonisation and pyrolysis. 61

4.2.2 Direct liquefaction 62

4.2.3 Indirect liquefaction . 64

4.2.4 Underground gasification . 66

4.3 EXISTING PLANTS AND FUTURE PROJECTS. 68

4.3.1 Existing Plants 68

4.3.2 Future projects .. 68

4.4 CO2 EMISSIONS. 69

4.5 MAIN INPUTS FOR THE DATABASE AND MODEL.. 70

4.6 MAIN REFERENCES. 71

ANNEX I - OVERVIEW OF THE FT GTL PROCESS CHAIN. 72

1/ THE ELEMENTAL STEPS IN THE FT GTL CHAIN .. 72

1.1 Syngas - first elemental step. 72

1.2 FT - second elemental step 73

1.3 HCI - third elemental step . 73

2/ FT GTL PROJECT ALLIANCES .. 74

3/ AREAS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND STUDY . 75

ANNEX 2 - NON-CONVENTIONAL FUEL SOURCES IN THE POLES MODEL . 76