| | Development of a model of the World Refining for the POLES |
| | 1,01 | | MB | model: the OURSE model |
| | 69 | | stron |
| | 2668 | | ID | JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies |
| | 2005 | | rok |
| | Table of contents |
| | Preface 5 |
| | Executive summary 7 |
| | 1. Introduction: objective of the model 9 |
| | 2. Description of the re.ning linear programming model 10 |
| | 2.1 Balances of intermediate and .nal products 10 |
| | 2.2 Demand equations 11 |
| | 2.3 Product quality control 12 |
| | 2.4 Capacity constraints 12 |
| | 2.5 Crude oil supply 12 |
| | 2.6 Pollutant emission 13 |
| | 2.7 Objective function 13 |
| | 3. Marginal cost pricing 14 |
| | 4. General framework and data of the OURSE model 16 |
| | 4.1 Introduction 16 |
| | 4.2 A representative deep conversion re.nery 16 |
| | 4.3 Petroleum products 18 |
| | 4.4 Geographical areas 19 |
| | 4.5 Crude oil supply 20 |
| | 4.6 Crude oil prices and exchanges prices of oil products 21 |
| | 5. Calibration of the model - year 2000 23 |
| | 5.1 Software and algorithms for optimization 23 |
| | 5.2 Summary output 23 |
| | 5.3 Assumptions for the calibration run on year 2000 23 |
| | 5.4 Summary and analysis of the simulation for year 2000 24 |
| | 5.4.1 Analysis of the primal results 25 |
| | 5.4.1.1 Re.neries throughput 25 |
| | 5.4.1.2 crude oil supply, oil products balances and calibration equations 26 |
| | 5.4.2 Analysis of the dual results 28 |
| | 6. Example of results for 2020 30 |
| | 6.1 General assumptions 30 |
| | 6.2 Results 32 |
| | 7. Ourse managed by vensim 34 |
| | 7.1 General overview 34 |
| | 7.2 Running a Gams programme in Vensim 34 |
| | 7.3 Input and output .les 35 |
| | 7.4 C programme or subroutine to drive gams 36 |
| | 7.5 Re.ning model optimization 37 |
| | 7.6 Gams re.ning model 38 |
| | 7.6.1 Basic re.ning model 38 |
| | 7.6.2 Crude oil supply and oil product .ows 39 |
| | 7.6.4 CO2 emission 40 |
| | 7.6.5 Limitation of investments 41 |
| | 7.6.6 Objective function 41 |
| | Conclusion 42 |
| | References 43 |
| | Annex 1- Re.ning units of the OURSE model and re.ning capacities in 2000 44 |
| | Annex 2 - Nomenclature of the oil products 46 |
| | Annex 3 - Re.ning model areas and regions of the world in the Poles model 47 |
| | Annex 4 - Crude oil freight costs 48 |
| | Annex 5 - Results of the calibration run - year 2000 49 |
| | Annex 6 – Description of the vensim external functions 55 |
| | Annex 7 – Gams re.ning model 62 |