MAKING THE NATION SAFER: THE ROLE OF SCIENCE AND

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TECHNOLOGY IN COUNTERING TERRORISM

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National Academies Press

2003

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Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

1 INTRODUCTION 25

Context of the Study, 25

Content and Structure of This Report, 30

2 NUCLEAR AND RADIOLOGICAL THREATS 39

The Nuclear and Radiological Threat Matrix, 39

Homeland Security Challenges, 49

Reducing Vulnerabilities, 51

Concluding Discussion, 63

References, 64

3 HUMAN AND AGRICULTURAL HEALTH SYSTEMS 65

Introduction, 65

Intelligence, Detection, Surveillance, and Diagnosis, 69

Prevention, Response, and Recovery, 79

Policy and Implementation, 96

Concluding Remarks, 102

References, 104

4 TOXIC CHEMICALS AND EXPLOSIVE MATERIALS 107

Inroduction, 107

Background: Chemicals as Weapons, 108

General Capabilities Needed to Help Mitigate Vulnerabilities, 113

Mitigating Vulnerabilities of Specific Systems, 121

Responding to Attacks, 127

A Strategy to Develop Economically Viable

Counterterrorism Technologies, 132

References, 132

Recommended Reading on Food Safety, 133

5 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 135

Introduction, 135

Threats Associated with IT Infrastructure, 136

Short-Term Recommendations, 144

Long-Term Recommendations: Investing in IT Research, 146

Privacy and Confidentiality, 170

Planning for the Future, 171

Implementation, 172

References, 175

6 ENERGY SYSTEMS 177

Introduction, 177

Electric Power, 180

Oil and Natural Gas, 196

References, 208

7 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS 210

Introduction and Overview, 210

Transportation System Characteristics, 212

Implications for Security Strategies, 214

Research and Technology Needs, 223

Advice to the Transportation Security Administration on Strategic Research and Planning, 231

Concluding Observations, 235

Dedication, 236

References, 236

8 CITIES AND FIXED INFRASTRUCTURE 238

Introduction, 238

Emergency Management and Emergency Operations Centers, 239

Water Supply and Wastewater Systems, 245

Electrical Supply Interruption, 252

Information Technology Systems and Communications, 252

Transportation and Distribution Systems, 252

Major and Monumental Buildings, 252

Stadiums and Other Places for Large Public Gatherings, 258

Underground Facilities, Including Tunnels, 262

References, 265

9 THE RESPONSE OF PEOPLE TO TERRORISM 267

Human Populations as Targets of Terrorism, 268

The Universality of Human Responses, 270

Anticipation and Preparedness, 271

Warnings, 273

The Occurrence of Attack, 274

Recovery, 279

References, 286

10 COMPLEX AND INTERDEPENDENT SYSTEMS 287

Introduction, 287

A Framework for a Systems Approach to Counterterrorism, 288

Systems Management Issues, 290

Counterterrorism Threat Modeling, 294

Infrastructure Modeling, 300

Modeling Challenges for Counterterrorism, 305

Implications for Education, 309

References, 310

11 THE SIGNIFICANCE OF CROSSCUTTING CHALLENGES 313

AND TECHNOLOGIES

Introduction, 313

Systems Analysis and Modeling, 315

Integrated Data Management, 317

Sensors and Sensor Networks, 320

Autonomous Mobile Robotic Technologies, 325

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Systems, 327

Biometrics, 329

Human and Organizational Factors, 330

Coordination of Programs on Crosscutting Technologies, 331

Conclusions, 332

12 EQUIPPING THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO COUNTER TERRORISM 335

Introduction, 335

Managing the Federal Government’s Program of Science and

Technology for Countering Terrorism, 338

The Role of the Federal Agencies in Developing and Using

Science and Technology for Countering Terrorism, 350

References, 355

13 ESSENTIAL PARTNERS IN A NATIONAL STRATEGY: STATES AND CITIES, INDUSTRY, AND

UNIVERSITIES 357

States and Cities, 357

Industry, 359

Universities, 364

References, 371

BIBLIOGRAPHY 372

APPENDIXES

A COMMITTEE AND STAFF BIOGRAPHIES 377

B PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF 389

C PANEL ACTIVITIES 394

D ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 399

INDEX 405