CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE BALTIC SEA AREA – DRAFT HELCOM

2,11

MB

THEMATIC ASSESSMENT IN 2006

51

stron

3501

ID

Helsinki Commission

2006

rok

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface 2

Executive Summary . 2

Baltic Sea area and the Global Climate Change .. 2

Fluctuating climate.. 3

Warming trend 3

General increase in precipitation.. 3

Ecosystem changes expected . 4

Table of contents 6

1. Introduction 7

2. The Baltic Sea Area 7

3. The Baltic Climate: Past Climate and Recent Climate Change .. 9

3.1 Atmospheric circulation and wind patterns and their changes over the Baltic Sea basin 10

3.2 Precipitation and cloudiness and their changes in the Baltic Sea basin . 13

3.3 Changes in extreme events 15

4. Changes in the Hydrological and Hydrographic Regimes of the Baltic Sea Basin 16

4.1 Water and ice regime, and snow cover .. 16

4.2 Hydrography.20

4.3 Coastal erosion 22

5. Projections of Future Climate Change .. 22

5.1 Projected global climate change. 22

5.2 Projections of future climate in the Baltic Sea basin .. 27

5.2.1 Projections based on global climate models. 27

5.2.2 Projections based on regional climate models 29

5.3 Projected future changes in the Baltic Sea 33

5.4 Summary of future climate change projections for the Baltic Sea Basin.. 34

6. Climate-related Change in the Baltic Marine Environment 37

6.1 Projected changes in the physical and chemical conditions in the Baltic Sea 37

6.1.1 Nutrient inputs.. 37

6.1.2 Chemical contaminants 38

6.2 Potential climate-related changes in the Baltic marine ecosystem .. 39

6.2.1 Bacteria 40

6.2.2 Phytoplankton 40

6.2.3 Zooplankton 42

6.2.4 Benthos . 43

6.2.5 Fish. 44

6.2.6 Marine mammals. 47

6.2.7 Seabirds 49

7. Concluding Remarks .. 50

References (partial list, to be completed)... 51