Countermeasures: A Technical Evaluation of the Operational

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Effectiveness of the Planned US National Missile Defense

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Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2000

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Contents

Figures xiv

Tables xvi

Boxes xvii

Executive Summary xix

1. Introduction 1

2. The Existing and Emerging Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States 5

3. The Planned NMD System 19

4. Countermeasures to the Planned NMD System: Why the Attacker Has the Advantage 31

5. Countermeasure Programs in the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China 35

6. An Overview of Emerging Missile State Countermeasures 39

7. Emerging Missile State Countermeasures 1: Submunitions with Biological or Chemical Agents 49

8. Emerging Missile State Countermeasures 2: Anti-Simulation Balloon Decoys for Nuclear

Warheads 59

9. Emerging Missile State Countermeasures 3: A Nuclear Warhead with a Cooled Shroud 81

10. Testing the NMD System: Requirements and Recommendations 91

11. Past US Tests Against “Countermeasures” 103

12. The Security Costs of NMD Deployment 107

13. Deterrence and Diplomacy 115

Appendices

A. The Thermal Behavior of Objects in Space 119

B. The Measurement and Discrimination Capabilities of SBIRS-Low 125

C. The Radar Cross Section of Warheads and Other Objects 131

D. The Measurement and Discrimination Capabilities of the NMD Ground-Based Radars 135

E. Countermeasures to Ballistic Missile Defenses: Past and Current Programs in the United States,

France, and Britain 145

F. The Reentry Heating of Submunitions 149

G. NASA Air Density Explorer Series Inflatable Balloon Satellites 159

H. The Thermal Effects of a Warhead Inside a Balloon 161

I. Shroud Cooling Requirements 167

J. Exoatmospheric Hit-to-Kill Intercept Tests 169

Contributor Biographies 173