Power Sector Reform in the Baltic States

0,72

MB

86

stron

3565

ID

Swedish Energy Agency, Statens energimyndighet

2002

rok

Table of Contents:

SUMMARY.7

1 INTRODUCTION.15

2 OVERVIEW OF THE BALTIC ELECTRICITY MARKET.17

2.1 General background .17

2.2 The Electricity Markets in the Baltic countries .19

2.2.1 Electricity consumption .19

2.2.2 Electricity generation ..21

2.2.3 Grid-structure and power flow23

2.2.4 The legislative and policy context 24

2.2.5 Structure of the power industry..30

2.3 Electricity Markets in the neighbouring countries33

2.3.1 Russia..33

2.3.2 Northwest Russia and the Kaliningrad area.36

2.3.3 Belarus 38

3 PRINCIPLE MARKET DESIGN FOR THE COMMON BALTIC ELECTRICITY MARKET ..40

3.1 Basic principles..40

3.1.1 Political and institutional agreements .40

3.1.2 Legislative and regulatory context41

3.1.3 Initial rules for market opening..43

3.2 Market participants ..45

3.2.1 Power producers.45

3.2.2 Suppliers - independent or others .47

3.2.3 Consumers.48

3.3 Market infrastructure ..50

3.3.1 Roles and responsibilities of the national TSOs 50

3.3.2 The integrated Baltic infrastructure .52

3.4 Outlook for initial competition ..53

4 FUTURE PRICE DEVELOPMENT56

4.1 Which prices?..56

4.2 Price formation in different systems 57

4.2.1 Prices in a regulated system.57

4.2.2 Prices in a market..58

4.3 Integrated Baltic market.58

4.3.1 The model .59

4.4 Prices in the future competitive market – reference case .65

4.4.1 Assumptions about future development.65

4.4.2 Prices in the future 68

4.5 Prices in the future competitive market – alternative scenarios 70

4.5.1 Higher growth rate 70

4.5.2 Later closure of Ignalina 2 70

4.5.3 Tax on CO2 emissions.71

4.5.4 More production in CHPs .74

4.5.5 Trade with Kaliningrad and Belarus 75

4.5.6 New interconnectors 75

4.6 Comparison of prices in different scenarios 77

4.7 Sources of uncertainty.79

4.7.1 Trade 79

4.7.2 Uncertainties on the supply side 79

4.8 Conclusions..81

REFERENCES 83