Russia's Tactical Nuclear Weapons, Part II: Technical Issues and

0,97

MB

Policy Recommendations

80

stron

3572

ID

Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI)

2005

rok

II-0.0 Introduction to Part II2

II-0.1 Methodological Approaches to Parts I and II ..4

II-1.0 Current Operational Status of Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Forces7

II-1.1 Tactical Nuclear Weapon Systems and Their Categorizations..7

II-1.1.1 Missions During the Soviet Era .10

II-1.1.2 The Current Operational Force ..12

II-1.2 Recent Evidence on How Russia Contemplates the Use of Its (Tactical) Nuclear Weapons16

II-1.2.1 Evidence from Recent Military Exercises 17

II-1.2.2 The Issue of Collateral Damage.18

II-2.0 Current Issues in Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Force Policy..19

II-2.1 The Role of Tactical Nuclear Forces in the 2000/2003 Russian Military Doctrines20

II-2.2 How Consistent are the Operation Tactical Nuclear Forces with the 2000/2003 Russian Military

Doctrines? 24

II-3.0 Command and Control in the Tactical Nuclear Forces Context ..27

II.3.1 C2 for Strategic Nuclear Systems: How Relevant? .28

II-3.2 C2 for Tactical Nuclear Forces 30

II-3.2.1 Dilemmas of Vulnerability and Command and Control 31

II-3.2.2 Authorizing the Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons .33

II-3.2.3 Concerns About Pre-Delegating Use Authority 35

II-3.2.4 “Permissive Action Links” for Russian Tactical Nuclear Warheads..36

II-4.0 Technical Aspects of Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons.38

II-4.1 Safety of Tactical Nuclear Warheads ..39

II-4.1.1 The Possibility of Causing an Unauthorized Detonation?39

II-4.1.2 One-Point Safety41

II-4.2 Manufacturing, Refurbishment, and Modernization Capabilities..44

II-4.2.1 Tactical Nuclear Warhead Manufacturing and Refurbishment .45

II-4.2.2 Tactical Warhead Testing and Modernization48

II-4.2.3 Tactical Nuclear Delivery Systems..49

II-4.3 Russian Tactical Nuclear Force Personnel 52

II-5.0 Security of Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Forces 55

II-5.1 The Nature of the Tactical Nuclear Warhead Security Problem 56

II-5.2 Current Status of Russian Tactical Nuclear Warhead Security ..61

II-6.0 Policy Recommendation: Consolidate Russia’s Nuclear Weapon Storage Sites ..63

II-6.1 Background on the Framework for Consolidation.66

II-6.2 Consolidation Proposal 68

II-6.3 Incentives for Russian Acceptance of Nuclear Warhead Storage Facility Consolidation ..70

II-7.0 Conclusions to Part II.72