Atmospheric Transport Pathways, Vulnerability and Possible

3,01

MB

Accidental Consequences from Nuclear Risk Sites:

49

stron

Methodology for Probabilistic Atmospheric Studies

3616

ID

DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE

2002

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

SUMMARY 2

I. INTRODUCTION TO THE PROBLEM 3

II. ARCTIC RISK NARP PROJECT PURPOSES 6

2.1. PROJECT ITEMS 6

2.2. STRATEGY FOR PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT 7

2.3. MILESTONE CHART FOR THE PROJECT 9

2.4. NETWORK PARTICIPANTS 11

III. SUGGESTED METHODOLOGY FOR COMPLEX RISK ANALYSIS 13

3.1. COMPLEX RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS 13

3.2. MAIN INDICATORS OF NRS IMPACT 17

IV. METHODOLOGY FOR PROBABILISTIC ATMOSPHERIC STUDY 19

4.1. METEOROLOGICAL DATA ARCHIVES 19

4.2. TRAJECTORY MODELING 21

4.3. TRAJECTORY CLUSTER ANALYSIS 24

4.4. PROBABILITY FIELD ANALYSIS 25

4.5. TYPICAL TRANSPORT TIME ANALYSIS 27

4.6. ADDITIONAL INDICATORS OF NRS IMPACT 30

4.7. REMOVAL OR PRECIPITATION FACTOR 31

4.8. DISPERSION AND DEPOSITION MODELING 33

4.9. CHOICE OF EPISODES FOR CASE STUDIES 34

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 36

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 37

REFERENCES 38