Future Issues in Environmental Radiation

0,46

MB

108

stron

3647

ID

UNITED STATES ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

1995

rok

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1

1.1 The Charge to the Radiation Environmental Futures Subcommittee 1

1.2 Process for the Identification of Major Issues for the Future in Environmental Radiation 1

1.3 Summary and Recommendations3

2. INTRODUCTION . 6

3. RESPONSE TO THE CHARGE AND PROCESS FOR THE IDENTIFICATION OF MAJOR

ISSUES FOR THE FUTURE IN ENVIRONMENTAL RADIATION 9

3.1 The Charge and the Process for the Report. 9

3.2 Response to the Charge 10

3.2.1 To conduct short-term and long-term scans of future developments in its field of expertise10

3.2.2 To conduct an in-depth examination of future developments using an approach chosen by the

Subcommittee. 12

3.2.3 To identify baseline information and trends that may be expected to have future impacts on

human health and the environment. 15

3.2.4 To focus on one or more case studies relevant to their expertise20

3.2.5 To suggest a procedure by which future environmental concerns can be recognized at an early

stage. 21

4. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY. 23

4.1 Introduction and Overview23

4.2 Scenario 1: Electrical Generation that Includes Nuclear Power. 27

4.3 Scenario 2: Decline of Nuclear Power . 28

4.4 Discussion and Recommendations 29

5. CHANGING PATTERNS OF EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION. 32

5.1 Key Drivers . 32

5.1.1 Medical Exposures. 32

5.1.2 Occupational Exposures. 34

5.1.3 Exposure to Radon (see also Section 9) 34

5.2 Recommendations 35

6. RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT. 36

6.1 Introduction and Overview36

6.2 Scenario 1: Continued Stalemate on Radioactive Waste Issues. 37

6.3 Scenario 2: Early and Effective Resolution of Radioactive Waste Issues 38

6.4 Implications for EPA39

6.5 Recommendations 40

7. NON-IONIZING RADIATION42

7.1 Introduction and Overview42

7.2 Societal Trends43

7.3 Issues45

7.3.1 Hazard and Exposure Identification . 45

7.3.2 Potential Effects on Ecological Systems46

7.4 Implications for EPA46

7.5 Recommendations 47

8. EXPOSURES, DOSE-RESPONSE MODELS, AND POPULATION SUSCEPTIBILITY 48

8.1 Introduction and Overview48

8.2 Key Issues49

8.2.1 Significant Changes in Our Understanding of Models for Dose-Response . 49

8.2.2 Differences in Radiation Susceptibility. 51

8.3 Recommendations 52

9. RADON AND THE INDOOR ENVIRONMENT 54

9.1 Key Drivers . 54

9.2 Trends and Assumptions. 55

9.3 Implications for EPA56

9.4 Recommendations 57

10. CONTROL OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS 58

10.1 Key Issues58

10.2 Recommendations 59

11. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS: FOCUS FOR THE FUTURE 61

11.1 Summary of Recommendations61

11.1.1 Energy production, radioactive waste management, and nuclear weapons materials issues .

61

11.1.2 Population exposures, dose-response models, and genetic susceptibilities to radiation risks62

11.1.3 Exposure to Non-Ionizing Radiation 63

11.1.4 Radon. 64

11.2 Focus for the Future. 64

11.2.1 Becoming the Source of Choice for Information on Environmental Radiation65

11.2.2 Developing a Foresight Capability65

11.3 Conclusions. 66