Options for the second commitment period of the Kyoto

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Federal Environmental Agency, Germany

2004

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Cont nts

1. INTRODUCTION 42

2. NETWORK AND OVERVIEW OF PROPOSALS 44

2.1 Development of the network . 44

2.2 Overview of processes on future action 45

Ov iew of approaches, targets and cross-cutting issues 46

2.4 Overview of institutions. 49

2.5 Interactive forum 50

2.6 Lessons learnt and outlook. 51

INTERESTS OF COUNTRIES . 53

3.1 Catalogue of criteria. 53

3.2 Country perspectives and possible conflicts 55

3.3 Summary . 59

COUNTRY CASE STUDIES 60

4.1 Case study: Mexico 60

4.1.1 National climate policy . 60

4.1.2 Emission profile: current and future emissions 61

4.1.3 Vulnerability 62

4.1.4 Domestic interest groups supporting climate change activities . 62

4.1.5 Incentive for Mexico to engage in further action on climate change 62

4.2 Case study: India 63

4.2.1 National climate policy . 63

4.2.2 Emission profile: current and future . 64

4.2.3 Vulnerability 66

4.2.4 Domestic interest groups supporting climate change activities . 66

4.2.5 Incentive for India to engage in future actions on climate change. 66

4.3 Case study: China 67

4.3.1 National climate policy . 67

4.3.2 Emission profile: current and future . 69

4.3.3 Vulnerability 71

4.3.4 Domestic interest groups supporting climate change activities . 72

4.3.5 Incentive for China to engage in future actions on climate change . 73

4.4 Case study: USA. 74

4.4.1 National climate policy . 74

4.4.2 Emission profile: current and future . 76

4.4.3 Vulnerability 77

4.4.4 Domestic interest groups supporting climate change activities . 77

4.4.5 Incentive for the USA to engage in future actions on climate change . 78

References 78

UES TO BE CONSIDERED . 79

5.1 Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations 79

5.2 Types of future commitments. 81

Participation 83

Stringency of emission reductions 86

Adaptation. 87

5.6 Negotiations 88

5.7 Conclusions 88

5.8 References 89

6. ADAPTATION 91

6.1 Introduction. 91

6.2 Defi tion of adaptation . 91

6.3 Adaptation in the UNFCCC framework 92

6.4 Funding for adaptation under the UNFCCC 93

6.6 Further issues

6.7 Conclusions.

8.3 Results. 124

8.3.1 450 ppmv case. 124

8.3.2 550 ppmv case. 127

8.4 Conclusions 129

8.5 References 130

9. A COMPROMISE PROPOSAL 132

9.1 Description 132

9.2 Quantification of emission allowances 135

9.3 Discussion of the criteria 141

9.4 Conclusions on compromise proposal 142

9.5 References 143

10. COMPARISON OF EMISSION ALLOWANCES . 144

10.1 Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations 144

10.2 Results. 147

10.2.1 550 ppmv CO2 148

10.2.2 450 ppmv CO2 150

10.2.3 400 ppmv CO2 151

10.2.4 Individual country long-term targets. 152

10.3 Mitigation costs 153

10.4 Conclusions 154

10.5 References 155

11. NEGOTIATION STRATEGY 157

11.1 Introduction. 157

11.2 Framework architecture. 158

11.2.1 Action until 2012. 158

11.2.2 Negotiations on post-2012 action 158

11.2.3 Links to international activities in other fora . 161

11.3 Elements of a strategy. 164

11.3.1 EU leadership. 164

11.3.2 Contents. 165

11.3.3 Partners 167

11.3.4 Supporting activities . 168

11.4 Conclusions 169

11.5 References 170

APPENDIX A KICK OFF PAPER NO.1 . 172

APPENDIX B KICK OFF PAPER NO.2 . 174

APPENDIX C KICK OFF PAPER NO.3 . 176

APPENDIX D KICK OFF PAPER NO.4 . 180

APPENDIX E DESCRIPTION OF THE EVOC MODEL. 186