Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the

2,28

MB

Risks

127

stron

4184

ID

U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment

1996

rok

contents

1 Introduction and Summary 1

Introduction 2

Major Findings 4

Weapon Characteristics and Comparisons 7

Implications of Proliferation 11

Proliferation Threats and Prospects 12

The Nonproliferation Policy Context 19

Conflicting Objectives 25

Conflicting Approaches 29

Technical Basis for Monitoring and Controlling Proliferation 32

2 Assessing the Risks 45

Weapons of Mass Destruction 46

Weapon Effects Compared 52

Near-Term Proliferation Threats: Suspected Proliferant Nations 63

Implications of Proliferation 69

A New Dimension to Proliferation: Risks From the Breakup of the Soviet Union 75

Appendix 2-A-Sources on Tables Listing Countries of Chemical and Biological Weapon Concern 79

3 Policy Background 83

Imposing Obstacles to Proliferation 84

Disincentives to Proliferants 93

Rewards for Abstention 98

When Nonproliferation Fails 109

Special and Urgent: Limiting Proliferation From the Former Soviet Union 111

Appendix 3-A-Costs and Benefits of Onsite Inspections for Nonproliferation Regimes 113

Index 117