ExternE Methodology report

2,08

MB

511

stron

4198

ID

European Commission Directorate-General for Research

2004

rok

1. INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 STATUS OF THIS REPORT1

1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE EXTERNE PROJECT .1

1.3 EXTERNAL COSTS: CONCEPT AND APPLICATION3

1.3.1 Defining External Effects .3

1.3.2 Internal Versus External Effects 5

1.3.3 Application of External Costs Data and Methodologies 6

1.4 RESEARCH ON EXTERNALITIES .6

1.4.1 Previous Studies6

1.4.2 Recent Research on External Costs8

1.5 PURPOSE AND STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT 9

1.6 REFERENCES12

2. THE IMPACT PATHWAY METHODOLOGY 14

2.1 APPROACHES USED FOR EXTERNALITY ANALYSIS .14

2.2 GUIDING PRINCIPLES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EXTERNE METHODOLOGY16

2.3 DEFINING THE BOUNDARIES OF THE ANALYSIS 17

2.3.1 Stages of the Fuel Cycle17

2.3.2 Location of Fuel Cycle Activities .18

2.3.3 Technologies .19

2.3.4 Identification of Fuel Cycle Burdens19

2.3.5 Identification of Impacts 20

2.3.6 Valuation Criteria .20

2.3.7 Spatial Limits of the Impact Analysis.20

2.3.8 Temporal Limits of the Impact Analysis.21

2.4 ANALYSIS OF IMPACT PATHWAYS 21

2.4.1 Prioritisation of Impacts 22

2.4.2 Description of Priority Impact Pathways.23

2.4.3 Quantification of Burdens 24

2.4.4 Description of the Receiving Environment.27

2.4.5 Quantification of Impacts28

2.4.6 Economic Valuation29

2.4.7 Assessment of Uncertainty .30

2.5 IMPACTS ASSESSED IN THE EXTERNE PROJECT 30

2.5.1 Priority Impacts for Fossil Technologies.30

2.5.2 Priority Impacts for Nuclear Technologies31

2.5.3 Priority Impacts for Renewable Technologies .31

2.5.4 Consistency .32

2.6 THE EXTERNE METHODOLOGY AND SUSTAINABILITY.32

2.6.1 Sustainable Development Framework32

2.6.2 Sustainability Indicators 33

2.6.3 Thresholds for Indicator Development.34

2.6.4 Unit of Measurement.34

2.6.5 Aggregation.35

2.6.6 Consistency With The ExternE Framework .35

2.6.7 Conclusions.36

2.7 SUMMARY .36

2.8 REFERENCES38

3. GENERAL ISSUES OF ECONOMIC VALUATION IN ASSESSMENT OF FUEL CYCLE

EXTERNALITIES40

3.1 TECHNIQUES FOR VALUATION.40

3.2 CATEGORIES OF VALUE.40

3.3 ISSUES ARISING IN THE USE OF MONETARY VALUES .42

3.4 TRANSFERABILITY OF BENEFIT ESTIMATES 42

3.4.1 Introduction.42

3.4.2 Benefit Transfer.43

3.4.3 Meta-Analysis43

3.4.4 Conclusions on Benefit Transfer 44

3.5 THE TREATMENT OF DISCOUNTING 44

3.5.1 Introduction.44

3.5.2 The Rationale for Discounting and Choice of Discount Rate 45

3.5.3 The Discounting Debate from an Environmental Perspective .46

3.5.4 Pure Individual Time Preference .46

3.5.5 Social Rate of Time Preference47

3.5.6 Opportunity Cost of Capital.48

3.5.7 Risk and Uncertainty.49

3.5.8 The Interests of Future Generations 50

3.5.9 Discount Rates and Irreversible Damage 51

3.5.10 A Sustainability Approach52

3.5.11 The Use of a Constant Discount Rate 54

3.5.12 Conclusions and Recommendations.54

3.6 REFERENCES56

4. MODELS FOR AIR POLLUTION ANALYSIS59

4.1 INTRODUCTION59

4.2 ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT MODELS59

4.3 SCOPE OF THE ECOSENSE MODEL .61

4.4 THE ECOSENSE MODULES .61

4.4.1 Reference Technology Database .62

4.4.2 Reference Environment Database62

4.4.3 Exposure-Response Functions .63

4.4.4 Monetary Values .63

4.4.5 Air Quality Models63

4.4.6 Impact Assessment Modules.64

4.4.7 Presentation of Results64

4.5 THE AIR QUALITY MODELS INTEGRATED IN ECOSENSE.64

4.5.1 Local Scale Modelling of Primary Pollutants - the Industrial Source Complex Model.64

4.5.2 Regional Scale Modelling of Primary Pollutants and Acid Deposition - the Windrose Trajectory

Model .66

4.6 REFERENCES69

5. ASSESSMENT OF UNCERTAINTY70

5.1 INTRODUCTION70

5.2 DOSE-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS.72

5.2.1 The Form of the Dose-Response Function.72

5.3 SUMMATION OVER RECEPTORS 73

5.3.1 Integration Over Areas Affected by Air Pollution73

5.3.2 Marginal Damage.74

5.3.3 Uniform World Model 76

5.4 COMBINATION OF UNCERTAINTIES77

5.4.1 Uncertainty of a Product.77

5.4.2 The Lognormal Distribution 79

5.5 SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY.80

5.5.1 Categories of Uncertainty 80

5.6 QUANTIFYING TECHNICAL/SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY.81

5.6.1 Emissions 81

5.6.2 Dispersion Models 82

5.6.3 Dose-Response Functions 83

5.6.4 Economic Valuation85

5.6.5 Other .87

5.7 FURTHER ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTIES IN HEALTH ASSESSMENT 87

5.8 SAMPLE RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS 90

5.9 REFERENCES94

6. ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL WARMING DAMAGES .97

6.1 INTRODUCTION97

6.2 INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS .98

6.3 KEY ISSUES .99

6.3.1 Discounting Damages Over Protracted Timescales 99

6.3.2 The Treatment of Equity.101

6.3.3 Socio-economic Conditions101

6.3.4 Climate and Impact Uncertainties .101

6.3.5 Treatment of Sustainability Problems 102

6.4 KEY IMPACTS 102

6.5 GLOBAL WARMING DAMAGE ESTIMATES 103

6.6 CONCLUSIONS .105

6.7 REFERENCES107

7. ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR ACCIDENTS.108

7.1 INTRODUCTION108

7.2 EXPERT PROBABILITIES AND LAY PROBABILITIES111

7.3 ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO VALUING RISK IN NUCLEAR ACCIDENTS112

7.4 FORMAL REPRESENTATION OF NUCLEAR ACCIDENT RISKS USING THE EXPECTED

UTILITY APPROACH113

7.5 FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS.114

7.6 FINAL REMARKS117

7.7 REFERENCES118

8. HEALTH EFFECTS OF PM10, SO2, NOX, O3 AND CO120

8.1 INTRODUCTION120

8.1.1 Purpose .120

8.1.2 Methods.120

8.2 STRATEGIC ISSUES, BY POLLUTANT .121

8.2.1 Particles: How should these be represented? 121

8.2.2 Ozone 123

8.2.3 SO2: There is an association, but is it causal?.124

8.2.4 CO.124

8.2.5 NO2125

8.3 OTHER OVERALL STRATEGIC ISSUES: TRANSFERABILITY AND THRESHOLDS 125

8.3.1 Different functions in `Western' and `Eastern' Europe 125

8.3.2 Choice of European functions 126

8.3.3 Transferring exposure-response functions from North America126