| | EXTERNALITIES OF ENERGY, EXTERNE PROJECT, Volume 2, |
| | 2,08 | | MB | METHODOLOGY: Method for Estimation of Physical Impacts and |
| | 408 | | stron | Monetary Valuation for Priority Impact Pathways |
| | 4199 | | ID | European Commission Directorate-General for Research |
| | 2004 | | rok |
| | CONTENTS |
| | PART I: IMPACT ASSESSMENT |
| | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
| | 1. INTRODUCTION 1 |
| | 1.1 Background To The ExternE Project 1 |
| | 1.2 Previous Studies 2 |
| | 1.3 Objectives and Scope of the ExternE Project 3 |
| | 1.4 Purpose and Structure of the Report 5 |
| | 1.5 References 6 |
| | 2. THE IMPACT PATHWAY METHODOLOGY 7 |
| | 2.1 Approaches Used for Externality Analysis 7 |
| | 2.2 Guiding Principles in the Development of the ExternE Methodology 11 |
| | 2.3 Defining the Boundaries of the Analysis 11 |
| | 2.4 Analysis of Impact Pathways 16 |
| | 2.5 Impacts Assessed in the ExternE Project 27 |
| | 2.6 Summary 28 |
| | 2.7 References 30 |
| | 3 MODELLING POLLUTANT TRANSPORT AND CHEMISTRY 31 |
| | 3.1 Introduction 31 |
| | 3.2 Atmospheric Transport Models 32 |
| | 3.3 Considerations on the Appropriate Range of Analysis 34 |
| | 3.4 Local Scale Modelling of Primary Pollutants 36 |
| | 3.5 Regional Scale Modelling of Primary Pollutants and Acid Deposition 39 |
| | 3.6 Ozone Modelling 46 |
| | 3.7 Conclusions 54 |
| | 3.8 References 56 |
| | 4. PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION ARISING FROM FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION |
| | 61 |
| | 4.1 Introduction 61 |
| | 4.2 Acute Effects of PM, SO2, NOx: Model Assumptions 67 |
| | 4.3 Acute Effects of Ozone 85 |
| | 4.4 Chronic Effects 103 |
| | 4.5 Summary of Model Assumptions 108 |
| | 4.6 Exposure-Response (E-R) Relationships: Acute Health Effects 111 |
| | 4.7 Exposure-Response (E-R) Relationships: Chronic Health Effects 133 |
| | 4.8 Summary of Exposure-Response Relationships Proposed 136 |
| | 4.9 Comments on Severity/Interpretation of Health Endpoints 140 |
| | 4.10 Aspects of Implementation 142 |
| | 4.11 Discussion 142 |
| | 4.12 Concluding Remarks 146 |
| | 4.13 References 147 |
| | 5. RADIOLOGICAL HEALTH IMPACTS 157 |
| | 5.1 Boundaries of the Assessment 157 |
| | 5.2 Uncertainty 158 |
| | 5.3 Priority Pathways for Environmental Releases 158 |
| | 5.4 Impacts of Atmospheric Releases of Radionuclides on Public Health 160 |
| | 5.5 Impacts of Liquid Releases of Radionuclides on Public Health 163 |
| | 5.6 Public Health Impacts of Releases of Radionuclides from Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites |
| | 164 |
| | 5.7 Impacts of Accidental Atmospheric Releases of Radionuclides 165 |
| | 5.8 Occupational Impacts 169 |
| | 5.9 Impacts of Transportation on Human Health 170 |
| | 5.10 Monetary Valuation 170 |
| | 5.11 References 172 |
| | 6. OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH EFFECTS 174 |
| | 6.1 The Impact Pathway 174 |
| | 6.2 Long Term Health Effects of Coalworkers 176 |
| | 6.3 Occupational Health Effects from Accidents 190 |
| | 6.4 Occupational Accidents from Extraction 193 |
| | 6.5 Occupational Accidents from Transportation 196 |
| | 6.6 Occupational Health Effects from Process Plant and Power Plant Operation 200 |
| | 6.7 Occupational Health Effects from construction and Decommissioning 201 |
| | 6.8 The Concept of Net-Risk 203 |
| | 6.9 Conclusions 204 |
| | 6.10 References 206 |
| | 7. IMPACTS ON TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS 210 |
| | 7.1 Introduction 210 |
| | 7.2 Impact Pathways for Acidic Deposition and Photo-Oxidants 211 |
| | 7.3 Critical Loads and Levels 215 |
| | 7.4 Available Methodologies for Assessment of Impacts on Semi-Natural Communities 219 |
| | 7.5 Summary 223 |
| | 7.6 References 224 |
| | 8. IMPACTS OF ACIDIC DEPOSITION AND PHOTO-OXIDANTS ON |
| | AGRICULTURE 226 |
| | 8.1 Effects of Pollutants on Agriculture 226 |
| | 8.2 European Crop Production 233 |
| | 8.3 Exposure-Response Functions 236 |
| | 8.4 Assessment of Impacts of Acidification on Agricultural Soils 245 |
| | 8.5 Assessment of Impacts of Nitrogen Deposition on Agricultural Soils 246 |
| | 8.6 Pollutant x Pest Interactions 247 |
| | 8.7 Conclusions 247 |
| | 8.8 References 249 |
| | 9. IMPACTS OF ACID RAIN AND OZONE ON FORESTS 254 |
| | 9.1 Introduction 254 |
| | 9.2 Pollution Effects on Forest Health and Recent Declines 257 |
| | 9.3 Available Models of Tree Response to Air Pollution 261 |
| | 9.4 Alternative Approaches 268 |
| | 9.5 Conclusions 279 |
| | 9.6 References 281 |
| | 10. EFFECTS OF ACIDIFICATION ON RECREATIONAL FISHERIES 286 |
| | 10.1 Introduction 286 |
| | 10.2 Linking Hydrochemical and Fish Status Models 289 |
| | 10.3 Mitigation Costs 294 |
| | 10.4 Summary 295 |
| | 10.5 References 297 |
| | 11. IMPACTS OF AIR POLLUTION ON BUILDING MATERIALS 300 |
| | 11.1 Introduction 300 |
| | 11.2 Impact Pathways of Fossil Fuel Cycle Pollutants on Materials 301 |
| | 11.3 Assessment of Damage to Building Materials 307 |
| | 11.4 Identification of Dose-Response Functions 316 |
| | 11.5 Estimation of Impacts on Materials 330 |
| | 11.6 Conclusions 335 |
| | 11.7 References 337 |
| | Appendix 11.1 Building Identikits used for the UK and German Implementations 342 |
| | 12. GLOBAL WARMING 350 |
| | 12.1 Introduction 350 |
| | 12.2 Methodology Based on Literature Review 351 |
| | 12.3 The Impact Pathway Methodology 360 |
| | 12.4 Conclusions 365 |
| | 12.5 References 366 |
| | 13. NOISE 368 |
| | 13.1 Introduction 368 |
| | 13.2 The Noise Impact Pathway 369 |
| | 13.3 Emissions of Sound 370 |
| | 13.4 Propagation of Sound 371 |
| | 13.5 Observed Sound Levels 373 |
| | 13.6 Perception of the Observed Noise Levels 374 |
| | 13.7 Valuation of the Noise Impact 378 |
| | 13.8 Internalisation of the Noise Externality 382 |
| | 13.9 References 383 |
| | 14. VISUAL AMENITY 384 |
| | 14.1 Introduction 384 |
| | 14.2 Direct Valuation by Contingent Valuation 385 |
| | 14.3 Visual Amenity Impact Pathway 386 |
| | 14.4 References 392 |
| | 15 MAJOR ACCIDENT ASSESSMENT 393 |
| | 15.1 Introduction 393 |
| | 15.2 Accidents in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle 394 |
| | 15.3 Major Accidents in the Oil And Gas Fuel Cycles 395 |
| | 15.4 Conclusions 398 |
| | 15.5 References 399 |