EXTERNALITIES OF ENERGY, EXTERNE PROJECT, Volume 2,

2,08
MB METHODOLOGY: Method for Estimation of Physical Impacts and

408
stron Monetary Valuation for Priority Impact Pathways

4199
ID European Commission Directorate-General for Research

2004
rok

CONTENTS

PART I: IMPACT ASSESSMENT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Background To The ExternE Project 1

1.2 Previous Studies 2

1.3 Objectives and Scope of the ExternE Project 3

1.4 Purpose and Structure of the Report 5

1.5 References 6

2. THE IMPACT PATHWAY METHODOLOGY 7

2.1 Approaches Used for Externality Analysis 7

2.2 Guiding Principles in the Development of the ExternE Methodology 11

2.3 Defining the Boundaries of the Analysis 11

2.4 Analysis of Impact Pathways 16

2.5 Impacts Assessed in the ExternE Project 27

2.6 Summary 28

2.7 References 30

3 MODELLING POLLUTANT TRANSPORT AND CHEMISTRY 31

3.1 Introduction 31

3.2 Atmospheric Transport Models 32

3.3 Considerations on the Appropriate Range of Analysis 34

3.4 Local Scale Modelling of Primary Pollutants 36

3.5 Regional Scale Modelling of Primary Pollutants and Acid Deposition 39

3.6 Ozone Modelling 46

3.7 Conclusions 54

3.8 References 56

4. PUBLIC HEALTH EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION ARISING FROM FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION

61

4.1 Introduction 61

4.2 Acute Effects of PM, SO2, NOx: Model Assumptions 67

4.3 Acute Effects of Ozone 85

4.4 Chronic Effects 103

4.5 Summary of Model Assumptions 108

4.6 Exposure-Response (E-R) Relationships: Acute Health Effects 111

4.7 Exposure-Response (E-R) Relationships: Chronic Health Effects 133

4.8 Summary of Exposure-Response Relationships Proposed 136

4.9 Comments on Severity/Interpretation of Health Endpoints 140

4.10 Aspects of Implementation 142

4.11 Discussion 142

4.12 Concluding Remarks 146

4.13 References 147

5. RADIOLOGICAL HEALTH IMPACTS 157

5.1 Boundaries of the Assessment 157

5.2 Uncertainty 158

5.3 Priority Pathways for Environmental Releases 158

5.4 Impacts of Atmospheric Releases of Radionuclides on Public Health 160

5.5 Impacts of Liquid Releases of Radionuclides on Public Health 163

5.6 Public Health Impacts of Releases of Radionuclides from Radioactive Waste Disposal Sites

164

5.7 Impacts of Accidental Atmospheric Releases of Radionuclides 165

5.8 Occupational Impacts 169

5.9 Impacts of Transportation on Human Health 170

5.10 Monetary Valuation 170

5.11 References 172

6. OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH EFFECTS 174

6.1 The Impact Pathway 174

6.2 Long Term Health Effects of Coalworkers 176

6.3 Occupational Health Effects from Accidents 190

6.4 Occupational Accidents from Extraction 193

6.5 Occupational Accidents from Transportation 196

6.6 Occupational Health Effects from Process Plant and Power Plant Operation 200

6.7 Occupational Health Effects from construction and Decommissioning 201

6.8 The Concept of Net-Risk 203

6.9 Conclusions 204

6.10 References 206

7. IMPACTS ON TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS 210

7.1 Introduction 210

7.2 Impact Pathways for Acidic Deposition and Photo-Oxidants 211

7.3 Critical Loads and Levels 215

7.4 Available Methodologies for Assessment of Impacts on Semi-Natural Communities 219

7.5 Summary 223

7.6 References 224

8. IMPACTS OF ACIDIC DEPOSITION AND PHOTO-OXIDANTS ON

AGRICULTURE 226

8.1 Effects of Pollutants on Agriculture 226

8.2 European Crop Production 233

8.3 Exposure-Response Functions 236

8.4 Assessment of Impacts of Acidification on Agricultural Soils 245

8.5 Assessment of Impacts of Nitrogen Deposition on Agricultural Soils 246

8.6 Pollutant x Pest Interactions 247

8.7 Conclusions 247

8.8 References 249

9. IMPACTS OF ACID RAIN AND OZONE ON FORESTS 254

9.1 Introduction 254

9.2 Pollution Effects on Forest Health and Recent Declines 257

9.3 Available Models of Tree Response to Air Pollution 261

9.4 Alternative Approaches 268

9.5 Conclusions 279

9.6 References 281

10. EFFECTS OF ACIDIFICATION ON RECREATIONAL FISHERIES 286

10.1 Introduction 286

10.2 Linking Hydrochemical and Fish Status Models 289

10.3 Mitigation Costs 294

10.4 Summary 295

10.5 References 297

11. IMPACTS OF AIR POLLUTION ON BUILDING MATERIALS 300

11.1 Introduction 300

11.2 Impact Pathways of Fossil Fuel Cycle Pollutants on Materials 301

11.3 Assessment of Damage to Building Materials 307

11.4 Identification of Dose-Response Functions 316

11.5 Estimation of Impacts on Materials 330

11.6 Conclusions 335

11.7 References 337

Appendix 11.1 Building Identikits used for the UK and German Implementations 342

12. GLOBAL WARMING 350

12.1 Introduction 350

12.2 Methodology Based on Literature Review 351

12.3 The Impact Pathway Methodology 360

12.4 Conclusions 365

12.5 References 366

13. NOISE 368

13.1 Introduction 368

13.2 The Noise Impact Pathway 369

13.3 Emissions of Sound 370

13.4 Propagation of Sound 371

13.5 Observed Sound Levels 373

13.6 Perception of the Observed Noise Levels 374

13.7 Valuation of the Noise Impact 378

13.8 Internalisation of the Noise Externality 382

13.9 References 383

14. VISUAL AMENITY 384

14.1 Introduction 384

14.2 Direct Valuation by Contingent Valuation 385

14.3 Visual Amenity Impact Pathway 386

14.4 References 392

15 MAJOR ACCIDENT ASSESSMENT 393

15.1 Introduction 393

15.2 Accidents in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle 394

15.3 Major Accidents in the Oil And Gas Fuel Cycles 395

15.4 Conclusions 398

15.5 References 399