Mapping the Global Future

7,26
MB

123
stron

4214
ID National Intelligence Council

2005
rok

Contents

Executive Summary 9

Methodology 19

Introduction 25

The Contradictions of Globalization

An Expanding and Integrating Global Economy

The Technology Revolution

Lingering Social Inequalities

Fictional Scenario: Davos World

Rising Powers: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape

Rising Asia

Other Rising States?

The “Aging” Powers

Growing Demands for Energy

US Unipolarity—How Long Can It Last?

Fictional Scenario: Pax Americana

New Challenges to Governance

Halting Progress on Democratization

Identity Politics

Fictional Scenario: A New Caliphate

Pervasive Insecurity

Transmuting International Terrorism

Intensifying Internal Conflicts

Rising Powers: Tinder for Conflict?

The WMD Factor

Fictional Scenario: Cycle of Fear

Policy Implications 111