Getting to “Yes” on Missile Defense The Need to Rebalance US

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Priorities & The Prospects of Transatlantic Cooperation

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stron

4548

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Center for Transatlantic Relations, The Johns Hopkins University

2004

rok

Table of Contents

Introduction and Executive Summary . 1

Setting The Stage: A Changed Strategic Environment and Emerging

Domestic Consensus . 7

The Range of Twenty-First Century Security Threats: Viewing Ballistic

Missiles and Cruise Missiles in Context . 9

The Missile Threat: Real and Growing . 9

Why is Missile Proliferation a Leading Security Threat? . 11

The Missile Threat in Context 12

Current U.S. Missile Defense Strategy and Programs: Issues to Consider . 14

The Bush Administration’s “Architectural” Approach 14

Key Issues to Debate 16

The Implications of ABM Treaty Withdrawal and NMD Deployment for

Missile Proliferation . 16

The China Proliferation Calculus . 16

Deployment in Advance of Comprehensive Testing and Validation 18

Resource Allocation Choices: Where the Rubber Hits the Road . 19

Overall Missile Defense Spending: A Case of Over-Allocation? 21

An Over-Emphasis on Long-Range Ballistic Missile Defense 22

Competitive Industrial Environment . 26

The Merits and Prospects of Transatlantic Engagement 28

The Threat Viewed from Europe 28

Prospects of Broadened Transatlantic Cooperation 29

Enhance Cooperation Will Build on Existing Efforts 29

The Bush Administration Initiative for Enhanced International Cooperation . 31

The Merits of Transatlantic Engagement on Missile Defense . 32

The Mixed Track Record of Transatlantic Cooperation:

The Disconnect Between Armaments Policy and Technology Transfer Policy 32

Why Europe Should Engage Anyway: The Case for Cooperation 35

Conclusion . 38

Endnotes . 39

About the Authors . 44