Uncertainty in Atmospheric CO2 Predictions from a Parametric

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Uncertainty Analysis of a Global Ocean Carbon Cycle Model

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4714

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Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2001

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Contents

1. Introduction. 2

2. The Ocean Carbon Model (OCM) . 3

2.1 Model Description 3

2.2 Pre-industrial Steady State Spin-up 5

2.3 Transient Spin-up for 1765–1989 . 5

3. Forecasting Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations 7

3.1 Closing the Carbon Cycle. 7

3.2 Reference Atmospheric CO2 Forecast 8

4. Application of Uncertainty Analysis to the OCM. 9

4.1 Probabilistic Collocation Method. 9

4.2 Uncertain Parameters in the OCM 10

4.3 Uncertain Response of the OCM . 12

4.4 Forecasting Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Under Uncertainty 15

4.5 Relative Importance of the Uncertain Parameters. 17

4.6 Sensitivity of the Results to Parametric Specification. 18

5. Conclusions 20

References.. 22