Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change and Policy Response

0,32

MB

25

stron

4717

ID

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2002

rok

Contents

1. Introduction .1

2. Methods .4

2.1 Structure of the MIT IGSM5

2.2 Uncertainty in IGSM Climate Parameters.6

2.3 Spin-up of Climate Model in Monte Carlo Experiments7

2.4 Data for Parameter Distributions .9

2.5 Anthropogenic Emissions Probability Density Functions 10

2.6 Latin Hypercube Sampling Uncertainty Analysis.10

3. Results and Discussion.11

3.1 Analysis of Uncertainty with and without Policy11

3.2 Robustness of Results.15

3.3 Comparison to Other Approaches15

4. Conclusions 18

5. References .19