The Specter of Species Extinction: Will Global Warming Decimate

0,19

MB

Earth’s Biosphere?

60

stron

4748

ID

George Marshall Institute

2003

rok

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 1

I. Introduction . 3

II. Physiological Reasons for Rejecting the CO2 -Induced Global Warming Extinction Hypothesis . 5

A. The Adaptability of Plants to Rising Temperature . 5

B. The Extra Help Provided by Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations 7

III. More Climate-Alarmist Claims of Extinction . 12

IV. Our Appraisal of the Root et al. (2003) Study . 14

V. Root et al.’s Tier 1 Studies . 16

T1.1 — Pounds et al. (1999) . 16

T1.2 — Hill et al. (1999) 17

T1.3 — Hill et al. (2001) 17

T1.4 — Parmesan et al. (1999) . 17

T1.5 — Thomas and Lennon (1999) 18

T1.6 — Prop et al. (1998) . 18

T1.7 — Grabherr et al. (1994) 18

T1.8 — Pauli et al. (1996) . 19

T1.9 — Kullman (2001) . 19

T1.10 — Vesperinas et al. (2001) 20

T1.11 — van Herk et al. (2002) . 20

VI. Root et al.’s Tier 2 Studies . 21

T2.1 — Emslie et al. (1998) 21

T2.2 — Pollard et al. (1995) 21

T2.3 — Ott (2001) . 22

T2.4 — Thomas et al. (2001) . 22

T2.5 — Southward et al. (1995) . 23

T2.6 — Meshinev et al. (2000) 24

T2.7 — Walther (2000) . 24

T2.8 — Wardle and Coleman (1992) 24

T2.9 — Catling (1996) 25

T2.10 — Ford (1996) . 25

T2.11 — Frey (2002) . 25

T2.12 — Frey (1992) . 26

T2.13 — Nehring (1998) 26

VII. Discussion of the Results of Root et al.’s Tier 1 and Tier 2 Studies . 27

VIII. Our Appraisal of the Parmesan and Yohe (2003) Study 29

IX. Parmesan and Yohe’s Additional Studies . 30

PY.1 — Smith et al. (1999) 30

PY.2 — Grabherr et al. (1995) 30

PY.3 — Sagarin et al. (1999) . 30

PY.4 — Beaugrand et al. (2002) . 31

PY.5 — Hersteinsson and Macdonald (1992) 31

PY.6 — Holbrook et al. (1997) 31

PY.7 — Sturm et al. (2001) 32

PY.8 — Smith (1994) . 32

PY.9 — Parmesan (1996) 32

PY.10 — Payette et al. (1989) 33

PY.11 — Ross et al. (1994) 33

PY.12 — Johnson (1994) 34

X. Discussion of the Results of Parmesan and Yohe’s Additional Studies 35

XI. Discussion of Real-World Observations . 37

XII. Conclusions 39

References . 40

Index . 49