Observed responses of species and ecosystems to changes in

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climate and extreme weather events: many more reasons for

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concern

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WWF Germany, Marine & Coastal Division

2004

rok

Table of Contents

Main findings . 5

1. Introduction . 9

2. Observed Changes 13

2.1 Observed changes in climate 13

2.2 Observed changes in the physical environment 16

2.2.1 Changes in the cryosphere . 16

2.2.2 Changes in river discharge 18

2.2.3 Sea level rise 19

2.2.4 Fire in ecosystems 19

2.2.5 Treeline and growing season . 19

2.3 Observed ecological changes . 20

2.3.1 Phenological changes as a response to climate change 20

2.3.2 Changes in distribution . 29

3. Are the observed changes a sign that things are getting worse? 37

3.1 Assessing future impacts of climate change on ecosystems . 38

3.2 Why are ecological impacts occurring so rapidly? 40

4. Conclusions: many reasons for concern 43

About the authors . 45

Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans . 45

Ir Arnold van Vliet . 45

Appendix: Newly added plant species to the Standard list of the Dutch Flora 46

References . 49