GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION PATHWAYS IN THE UNFCCC

0,31
MB PROCESS UP TO 2025

37
stron

5002
ID Directorate-General for the Environment, European Commission

2003
rok

Executive summary3

The need for further action9

World greenhouse gas emissions, if unconstrained, lead to levels of concentrations that are

inconsistent with the EU climate target. 9

Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at levels meeting the EU target implies substantial

changes in emissions immediately after 2010 . 11

Meeting the EU climate target is only likely under stringent global emission profiles 12

By 2025, reductions of 15 to 30 % from baseline are required 13

Options for the future architecture of international climate policies 14

The diversity in principles and variables for the design of international climate policies 14

- Problem definition (burden sharing or resource sharing) 14

- Equity principles. 14

- Setting emission reduction targets (top-down or bottom-up). 15

- Timing of participation (synchronous or differentiated) . 15

- Type of commitment (baseline-dependent or not, absolute or dynamic) 15

A short review of key approaches to the future climate architecture . 15

- Per Capita Convergence in emission endowments. 15

- Soft Landing in emission growth 15

- Global Preference Score approach 15

- Historical Contribution to Climate Change or ‘Brazilian proposal’ . 16

- Ability To Pay. 16

- Multi-Stage approach. 16

Per Capita Convergence and Multi-Stage as two generic endowment schemes 17

- Per Capita Convergence: testing for an earlier or later convergence year . 18

- Multi-Stage: a graduated approach to emission targets 18

- Stage 1 to Stage 2: from no-constraint to emission limitation (carbon intensity) targets 18

- Stage 2 to Stage 3: from emission limitation to reduction targets . 19

An assessment of emission profiles and endowment schemes .20

Timing and targets for the Per Capita Convergence and Multi-Stage schemes. 20

- Timing and targets in the S550e emission profile 20

- Timing and targets in the S650e emission profile 20

Regional emission reduction targets under the Multi Stage and Per Capita Convergence schemes 21



- Annex I regions, 2025 horizon. 21

- Annex I regions, 2050 horizon. 22

- Non-Annex I regions, 2025 horizon . 23

- Non-Annex I regions, 2050 horizon . 23

Assessment of the outcomes of the commitment schemes in the sectoral abatement cost approach

24

Assessment of the outcomes of the commitment schemes in the general equilibrium approach. 27

- The carbon value resulting from the emission profiles 27

- Macroeconomic implications at the regional level. 27

Co-benefits of climate policies: the example of regional air pollution .29

Co-benefits between climate policies and regional air pollution. 29

The linkages between climate change and regional air pollution 29

- Changes in emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxide 29

- Potential benefits for human health . 30

Conclusions31

- Global emission profiles for meeting the EU climate target. 31

- Building international commitment schemes . 31

- Results of the assessment of the Per Capita Convergence and Multi-Stage approaches 3