| | GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION PATHWAYS IN THE UNFCCC |
| | 1,46 | | MB | PROCESS UP TO 2025 − TECHNICAL REPORT |
| | 104 | | stron |
| | 5003 | | ID | Directorate-General for the Environment, European Commission |
| | 2003 | | rok |
| | Greenhouse gas Reduction Pathways: Executive summary.ii |
| | Introduction1 |
| | 1. Global emission constraints and baseline emission scenario assumptions.3 |
| | 1.1. Baseline scenario for the 1995 - 2100 period.3 |
| | 1.2. Emission profiles for the stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentration at 550 and 650 ppmv.6 |
| | |
| | 1.3. Impacts on temperature.9 |
| | 1.4. Implications for emission reductions.10 |
| | 1.5. Conclusions11 |
| | 2. A review and selection of the approaches to international commitment schemes13 |
| | 2.1. The dimensions of international commitment schemes.13 |
| | 2.2. The selected endowment rules for the first phase of the Greenhouse gas Reduction Pathways |
| | study15 |
| | 2.3. Characterisation of the six selected approaches16 |
| | 2.4. Outcomes of the different approaches assessed in the first phase of the study.17 |
| | 2.4.1. The commitment schemes and resulting endowments.18 |
| | 2.4.2. Key conclusions19 |
| | 3. The long-term endowment schemes: design, key parameters and resulting endowments21 |
| | 3.1. Key assumptions for the Per Capita Convergence and Multi-Stage cases 21 |
| | 3.1.1. Two Per Capita Convergence cases: convergence in 2050 and in 2100.21 |
| | 3.1.2. Three simplified Multi-Stage schemes to emission commitments21 |
| | 3.1.3. Hypotheses for the Multi-Stage cases in the S550e constraint23 |
| | 3.1.4. Assumptions for the Multi-Stage cases under the S650e constraint24 |
| | 3.2. Regional endowments under the S550e constraint25 |
| | 3.2.1. S550e, reductions from Reference case to 2025 and 2050.25 |
| | 3.2.2. Robustness of results for the S550e profile27 |
| | 3.3. Regional endowments under the S650e constraint29 |
| | 3.3.1. S650e, reductions from Reference case to 2025 and 2050.29 - i - |
| | 3.3.2. Robustness of results for the S650e profile30 |
| | 3.4. Conclusions31 |
| | 4. Abatement costs and impacts on the energy systems and on the economies35 |
| | 4.1. Impacts on the energy sector from the POLES model35 |
| | 4.1.1. World carbon price35 |
| | 4.1.2. The S550e profile.36 |
| | 4.1.3. The S650e profile.38 |
| | 4.1.4. The pattern of international emission trading40 |
| | 4.1.5. Synthesis on effort rates in S550e and S650e for 13 regions43 |
| | 4.1.6. Impacts on the World Energy Balances44 |
| | 4.2. Economic assessment of endowment schemes with the GEM-E3 model 47 |
| | 4.2.1. Introduction.47 |
| | 4.2.2. Methodology and design of model applications48 |
| | 4.2.3. Results48 |
| | 4.2.4. Model based quota endowment scheme55 |
| | 4.2.5. Conclusions58 |
| | 4.3. Long term abatement costs and emission trading with the FAIR model 59 |
| | 4.3.1. World prices and global effort.59 |
| | 4.3.2. Regional abatement and trading under the S550e and S650 profiles60 |
| | 4.3.3. Financial flows62 |
| | 4.3.4. Effort rates..64 |
| | 4.3.5. Abatement action within the long-term energy system.66 |
| | 4.3.6. Conclusions71 |
| | 5. Co-benefits of mitigation actions.73 |
| | 5.1. Co-benefits from the FAIR-TIMER-RAINS modeling.73 |
| | 5.1.1. Co-benefits of climate policies for regional air pollution control73 |
| | 5.1.2. Potential co-benefits of the S550e and S650e mitigation scenarios.75 |
| | 5.1.3. Looking into more detail to changes in Asia.81 |
| | 5.1.4. Conclusions83 |
| | 5.2. Evaluation of co-benefits from GEM-E3 and ExternE.83 |
| | 5.2.1. Methodology for evaluating co-benefits in GEM-E3 World.83 |
| | 5.2.2. Co-benefits in the Multi-Stage 3 scenarios.85 |
| | References89 |