SPATIAL IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE NORTH

2,22

MB

WEST

107

stron

5078

ID

University of Manchester

2003

rok

Contents

1. Summary.4

1.1. Context.4

1.2. Impacts and adaptation5

1.3. Climate mitigation strategies.7

1.4. Integrated assessment8

1.5. Conclusions & recommendations.9

2. Introduction17

2.1. Scope and method.17

2.2. Report contents.19

3. Context20

3.1. The science of climate change20

3.2. The policy agenda.21

4. Regional climate change scenarios.25

4.1. Applying the UKCIP 2002 scenarios25

4.2. Predicted changes in the NW climate.25

4.3. Uncertainty and surprises29

5. Spatial effects of impacts & adaptation.30

5.1. Consideration of regional impacts30

5.2. Flooding.31

5.3. Biodiversity.36

5.4. Soil quality and erosion.38

5.5. Air quality and urban micro-climate.39

5.6. Water resources.42 1

5.7. Forestry and agriculture44

5.8. Leisure & tourism.48

5.9. Health & healthcare.49

5.10. Insurance & property.51

5.11. Building design & construction52

5.12. Open space and urban ecology56

5.13. Utilities.58

5.14. Transport59

5.15. Urban drainage and waste water treatment.62

5.16. Summary of spatial effects & policy responses62

6. Spatial effects of climate mitigation.67

6.1. Energy supply systems67

6.2. Carbon sinks72

6.3. Energy efficiency in buildings73

6.4. Transport & spatial development77

7. Landscape types & case studies79

7.1. Implications for cities79

7.2. Urban fringe80

7.3. Coastal zones.80

7.4. Rural uplands82

7.5. Rural lowlands82

7.6. Summary of impacts on landscape types83

7.7. Case study A: Lake District85

7.8. Case study B: Ribble Valley, Lancashire.85

7.9. Case study C: Greater Manchester87

8. Spatial implications89

8.1. Integrated assessment89

8.2. Climate change and the planning system92

8.3. Implications for regional spatial strategy94 2

9. Conclusions & recommendations.100

9.1. Conclusions.100

9.2. Recommendations.102