STOCKS AND FLOWS: Carbon Inventory and Mitigation Potential

1,72

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of the Russian Forest and Land Base

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5219

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World Resources Institute

2005

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Table of Contents

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes v

Acknowledgments . vii

Executive Summary. 1

1. Introduction, Purpose, and Background 2

1.1 Climate Change, Land Use, and the Russian Land Base .3

1.2 International Reporting of Land Use and Carbon Fluxes3

1.3 Carbon Sequestration as a Climate Change Mitigation Option6

2. Available Data for Reporting Russian Carbon Stocks and Fluxes 6

2.1 Steps Necessary for Quantifying Carbon in Forests.6

2.2 Data for Estimating Land Use .7

2.2.1 Forestland and Growing Stock Inventories in the State Forest Fund Account 9

2.2.2 Forest Disturbances 11

2.2.3 Wetlands and Agricultural Land Area 13

2.3 Cross-Validation of Forest Area Estimates (SFFA) and Satellite Data.13

2.4 Estimating Carbon Stocks and Fluxes 14

2.4.1 Carbon in Forested Ecosystems 14

2.4.2 Carbon in Wetlands and Agricultural Lands15

2.5 Summary Assessment of Data Availability and Quality for National Reporting of Carbon Fluxes

and Mitigation Activities .15

3. Historical Trends in Land Use, Carbon Stocks, and Fluxes for Russia (1966 to 2003) . 19

3.1 Trends in Land Cover, Disturbances, and Carbon Sequestration 19

3.1.1 Forest Area and Carbon Stocks.19

3.1.2 Harvesting, Regeneration, and Disturbance .19

3.1.3 Wetlands22

3.1.4 Agricultural Land .22

3.1.5 Summary of Trends in Land Use and Forest Management in Russia .23

3.1.6 Summary of Carbon Budget: Stock Changes 24

3.2 Comparison of Carbon Budget to Other Estimates in the Literature.25

4. The Baseline: Future Projections of Land Use, Growing Stock, and Carbon Stocks in Russia 26

4.1 Summary of Russian Experience Projecting Carbon Stocks27

4.2 Baseline Harvest and Sequestration Projection Using a Global Timber Model27

5. Mitigation Analysis. 32

5.1 Options for Enhancing Forest Carbon Sinks in Russia 33

5.1.1 Afforestation.33

5.1.2 Reforestation.33

5.1.3 Improved Forest Management33

5.1.4 Setting Aside Forests 33

5.1.5 Reducing Forest Fires .33

5.2 Bottom-Up Analysis of Mitigation Options in Land Use and Forest Sectors:

Afforestation/Reforestation34

5.2.1 Carbon Sequestration in Potential Afforestation/Reforestation .35

5.2.2 Costs of Mitigation Activities36

5.3 A Top-Down Approach for Estimating Sequestration in Russia37

5.4 Discussion of Carbon Sequestration Estimates .38

6. Conclusions and Recommendations 42

6.1 What Is the Status of Russian Forestry Data for Assessing Carbon Stocks and Flows and for

Conducting Analysis of Carbon Sequestration Potential?.42

6.2 What Is the Magnitude of Carbon Stocks on Lands in Russia Today, and Are These Stocks a

Net Sink or Source of Emissions?.43

6.3 What Is the Economic Potential to Sequester Additional Carbon on the Russian Forest

Landscape as a Climate Mitigation Option?44

6.4 Recommendations for Improving the Projection of Carbon Stocks and Potential for Mitigation in

Russia 44

6.5 Recommendations for Improving International Reporting of Land Use Change and Forestry45

Bibliography . 47