Denmark's Third National Communication on Climate Change

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Danish Environmental Protection Agency

2003

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Foreword 6

Introduction 9

1 Executive Summary . 11

1.1 National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals 11

1.1.1 General . 11

1.1.2 Energy, transport, and the domestic sector . 11

1.1.3 Business sector and waste . 12

1.1.4 Agriculture and forestry . 12

1.1.5 Greenland and the Faroe Islands 12

1.2 Greenhouse gas inventory information 13

1.2.1 Carbon dioxide, CO2 14

1.2.2 Methane, CH4 . 14

1.2.3 Nitrous oxide, N2O . 15

1.2.4 The industrial gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6 . 15

1.2.5 Denmark’s, Greenland’s and the Faroe Island's’ total emissions and removals of greenhouse

gases . 15

1.2.6 Preliminary inventories under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU’s of burden-sharing . 15

1.3 Policies and measures . 16

1.3.1 Mechanisms and effects in Denmark’s economic sectors 17

1.4 Projections and the total effect of policies and measures . 20

1.5 Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation . 21

1.5.1 Climate development – effects and possibility for adaptation for Denmark . 21

1.5.2 Climate changes in Greenland and on the Faroe Island's 21

1.6 Financial resources and transfer of technology . 22

1.7 Research and systematic observations 22

1.8 Education, training and public awareness . 24

2 National circumstances relevant to greenhouse gas emissions and removals . 25

2.1 Denmark 25

2.1.1 Form of government and structure of administration . 25

2.1.2 Population 26

2.1.3 Geography 26

2.1.4 Climate . 27

2.1.5 Economy 29

2.1.6 Energy and the domestic sector . 29

2.1.7 Transport 34

2.1.8 Business sector . 35

2.1.9 Waste . 37

2.1.10 Buildings and urban structure . 37

2.1.11 Agriculture . 38

2.1.12 Forestry . 39

2.2 Greenland . 40

2.2.1 Form of government and administrative structure . 40

2.2.2 Population 40

2.2.3 Geography 40

2.2.4 Climate . 41

2.2.5 Economy . 44

2.2.6 Energy 44

2.2.7 Transport 45

2.2.8 Business sector . 45

2.2.9 Waste 46

2.2.10 Buildings and infrastructure 46

2.2.11 Agriculture 46

2.2.12 Forestry . 47

2.3 The Faroe Island's 47

2.3.1 Form of government and administrative structure 47

2.3.2 Population 47

2.3.3 Geography 47

2.3.4 Climate . 47

2.3.5 Economy 49

2.3.6 Energy 50

2.3.7 Transport 51

2.3.8 Business sector . 52

2.3.9 Buildings and urban structure . 52

2.3.10 Agriculture . 52

2.3.11 Forestry . 53

3 Greenhouse gas inventory information .55

3.1 Greenhouse gas inventories . 55

3.2 Denmark’s emissions and removals of greenhouse gases . 55

3.2.1 Carbon dioxide (CO2) 55

3.2.2 Methane (CH4) . 57

3.2.3 Nitrous oxide (N2O) . 57

3.2.4 The industrial gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6 58

3.2.5 Denmark’s total emissions and removals of greenhouse gases 59

3.3 Denmark’s, Greenland’s and the Faroe Island's’ total emissions and removals of greenhouse

gases 60

3.4 Preliminary inventories under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU’s distribution of the burden sharing

. 60

4 Policies and measures . 63

4.1.Climate policy and the decision-making process 63

4.1.1 National action plans 66

4.1.2 Denmark’s new climate strategy . 67

4.1.3 Economic aspects of the climate policy . 67

4.2 Policies and measures and their effects Denmark’s economic sectors 71

4.2.1 Energy 72

4.2.2 Transport . 75

4.2.3 Business sector 76

4.2.4 Agriculture, forestry and fisheries 83

4.2.5 Domestic sector 91

4.2.6 Waste . 93

4.3 Energy policies and measures in Greenland . 96

5. PROJECTIONS AND THE TOTAL EFFECT OF POLICIES AND MEASURES 99

5.1 Introduction and overall effect of policies and measures . 99

5.2. Energy, including transport and the domestic sector 101

5.3. Business sector 103

5.4 Agriculture . 103

5.4.1 Methane . 104

5.4.2 Nitrous oxide 105

5.5 Forestry 105

5.6 Waste . 105

5.7 Total emissions . 106

5.7.1 Total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions 106

5.7.2 Methane, CH4 . 107

5.7.3 Nitrous oxide, N2O . 108

5.7.4 Industrial gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6 108

5.8 Greenland and the Faroe Islands 110

5.9 Methods used in the projections 110

6 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION MEASURES

. 113

6.1 Climate in the future 113

6.2 Climate trend in Denmark . 113

6.2.1 The latest developments . 113

6.2.2 Projected climate changes in Denmark . 113

6.2.3 Impacts and Denmark’s possibilities for adaptation . 114

6.3 Climate changes in Greenland 118

6.3.1 Impacts and adaptations in terrestrial ecosystems . 119

6.3.2 Impacts and adaptations in marine ecosystems . 121

6.4 Climate changes on the Faroe Island's 6.4.1 Impacts and adaptation in terrestrial and marine

ecosystems . 124

7 FINANCIAL RESOURCES AND TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY . 127

7.1 Danish development policy

7.1.1 Development cooperation . 127

7.1.2 New and additional assistance funds 129

7.1.3 Assistance through the private sector 134

7.1.4 Assistance to developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate changes 136

7.1.5 Activities in connection with technology transfer 136

7.2 Cooperation with Central and Eastern Europe . 137

7.2.1 MIFRESTA Facility 137

7.2.2 Strategy for Danish assistance to

Central and Eastern Europe 2002-2003 . 138

8 RESEARCH AND SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION 139

8.1 Climate research and observations in general . 139

8.2 Research . 140

8.2.1 Research policy and funding . 140

8.2.2 Climate processes and studies including palaeoclimatic studies 141

8.2.3 Climate modelling and the climate of the future 143

8.2.4 Effects of climate change 144

8.2.5 Economic research, including evaluation of climate change and possibilities for mitigation .

145

8.2.6 Research and development of technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt

to climate change 146

8.3 Systematic climate observations 147

8.3.1 Atmospheric climate observations, including measurements of the atmosphere’s composition

147

8.3.2 The ice observation service 150

8.3.3 Stratospheric observations . 151

8.3.4 Reanalyses and climate databases . 151