Nord Stream, Sweden and Baltic Sea Security

0,92
MB

110
stron

5400
ID Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI)

2007
rok

Table of Contents

1 INTRODUCTION. 12

Europe’s Diversification and International Competition 12

Nord Stream – A Change in the Regional Strategic Pattern . 16

Aim of the Study 17

Approach of the Study 17

Outline of the Study 19

2 BASIC DATA OF THE NORD STREAM PROJECT. 21

Declaration of Intent 21

Ownership, Construction and Operation. 21

Planned Route 23

Technical Features, Process and Timeline 24

Key Points. 25

3 THE NORD STREAM – CONSEQUENCES AND CONCERNS. 26

Rationale and Legitimacy of the Project . 26

Lack of Transparency and Murky Connections. 28

Financial Problems or Pure Profit 33

Military Presence in the Baltic Sea . 35

Intelligence and Surveillance Aspects . 37

The Risk of Terrorism. 37

Energy Political issues . 39

Environmental Concerns . 39

Russian State Control . 39

Increased Russian Leverage on the bypassed States . 40

Increased Russian Leverage on the Connected States. 41

Risks of Appeasement . 43

The Risk of Regional and Intra-EU Frictions 43

Becoming Dependent on Scare Resources. 45

International Law and Legal Aspects 45

Further Consequences and Issue of Concern 46

Saying No – Problems Solved? 47

Key Points. 48

4 PERCEPTIONS AND OPINIONS. 50

Russia’s View . 50

Germany’s View . 51

Poland’s View. 52

Estonia’s, Latvia’s and Lithuania’s View 53

The View of Sweden and other States 55

Key points . 56

5 ALTERNATIVE STRETCHES . 58

The Alternative Sea Options 60

Key Points. 61

6 SWEDEN’S ENERGY SITUATION . 63

Sweden’s Energy Situation 63

Sweden’s Energy Sensitivity – Russia in Focus. 66

Sweden’s Energy Vulnerability. 67

Key Points. 70

7 ENERGY FROM RUSSIA’S POINT OF VIEW 72

Russia’s Perceptions 72

Russia’s Capabilities 74

Old and New Powers 75

Russia’s Energy Supply Interruptions . 77

Russia’s Coercive Energy Policy in Aggregated Terms 80

Key Points. 81

8 BARRIERS AND TRIGGERS . 83

Political Barriers against Supply Interruptions 86

Key Points. 87

APPENDIX: ACRONYMS . 88

BIBLIOGRAPHY 89

REPORTS ON THE BALTIC SEA REGION, RUSSIA OR ENERGY 103

ABOUT THE AUTHOR 107