Russia’s Tactical/Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons - Part I:

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Background and Policy Issues

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Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI)

2003

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Contents

I-0.0 Introduction to Part I 7

I-0.0 Introduction to Part I 7

I-1.0 Russia’s Nuclear Weapons Force Structure. 8

I-1.1 Total Scope . 8

I-1.2 Strategic Nuclear Forces 9

I-1.3 Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces. 9

I-1.4 Tactical Nuclear Forces . 9

I-1.4.1 Definitions 9

I-1.4.2 Tactical Nuclear Force Deployments and Reductions Prior to 1992 11

I-1.4.3 1991/1992 Unilateral Presidential Nuclear Initiatives 12

I-2.0 Baseline Numerical Estimates . 14

I-3.0 1992-2003 Tactical Nuclear Force Developments 18

I-3.1 The Withdrawal from Ukraine. 19

I-3.2 Within Russia 21

I-4.0 Recent Developments in Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Forces Policy . 24

I-4.1 Early Post-Cold War Russian Military Policies. 24

I-4.2 The 1999 Russian Security Council Meeting 27

I-4.3 The “Zapad-99” Military Exercises . 28

I-4.4 The 2000 Russian Policy Statements. 30

I-4.4.1 The National Security Concept. 30

I-1.4.2 The Military Doctrine . 31

I-1.4.3 The Foreign Policy Concept . 33

I-4.5 Nuclear Policy Debates in 2000. 34

I-4.6 The Kaliningrad Controversy 35

I-4.7 Other Official Declarations with Respect to Tactical Nuclear Weapons Issues 37

I-5.0 Perceived Threats to Russia’s Security: Why Russia Thinks it Requires Tactical Nuclear

Weapons 38

I-5.1 The Western Front and NATO Expansion 39

I-5.2 The Eastern Front and the Issue of China 41

I-5.3 The Southern Front and Central Asia 44

I-5.4 Other Russian Security Concerns 45

I-6.0 Future Prospects for Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons. 45

I-6.1 Implications for European NATO Countries 45

I-6.2 Implications for Non-NATO European Countries. 47

I-6.3 Implications for the United States . 47

I-6.4 Implications for China . 48

I-6.5 Implications for Central Asia and Russia’s Southern Region . 48

I-7.0 Conclusions to Part I.. 49

Foreword: Ambassador Jonathan Dean . 4

Foreword: Rt. Hon. Menzies Campbell MP 6

Executive Summary . 7

Acronyms and Abbreviations . 13

Introduction 14

CHAPTER 1: Public Policy: New Nukes Debut in US Planning 17

1.1 The Nuclear Posture Review Sets the Scene . 17

1.2 Technological Considerations . 20

1.3 The Question of Testing . 25

1.4 New Nuclear Weapons and Congress . 27

1.5 Is US Deterrence Credible? . 29

CHAPTER 2: Low-Yield Nukes: Old Ideas with a New Twist . 32

2.1 Development Of US Nuclear Policy, 1990-2000 32

2.2 Hardened Targets: The DoD/DOE Response Since 1990 . 38

CHAPTER 3: How US Choices Affect Global Security . 45

3.1 NATO – The Alliance Under Pressure 45

3.2 UK-US Nuclear Relations . 49

3.3 Global Agreements at Stake 53

3.4 Regional Impacts . 61

CHAPTER 4: Conclusions and Recommendations 71

4.1 Immediate Steps to Prevent the Development and Testing of New Weapons . 72

4.2 Confronting Security Threats: Negotiations, Not Nukes 73

Endnotes . 76