| | Russia’s Strategic Commodities: Energy and Metals as Security |
| | 1,63 | | MB | Levers |
| | 182 | | stron |
| | 5406 | | ID | Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) |
| | 2004 | | rok |
| | CONTENT |
| | FOREWORD AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. 5 |
| | CONTENT 6 |
| | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 |
| | COMMODITY AND SECURITY POLICY 11 |
| | CONCLUSIONS CONCERNING ALL COMMODITIES 13 |
| | CRUDE OIL. 14 |
| | NATURAL GAS . 15 |
| | ALUMINIUM . 16 |
| | NICKEL 17 |
| | PALLADIUM . 17 |
| | 1 INTRODUCTION. 19 |
| | 1.1 POINT OF DEPARTURE 20 |
| | 1.1.1 Objective and Aim 20 |
| | Objective of the Study . 21 |
| | Aim of the Study . 21 |
| | 1.1.2 Approach and Basic Assumptions 21 |
| | 1.2 METHOD EMPLOYED AND SCOPE OF INQUIRY. 22 |
| | 1.2.1 Delimitations of the Study and Criteria of Selection 22 |
| | 1.2.2 Sources Utilised. 23 |
| | 1.2.3 Methodological Problems. 24 |
| | 1.3 HOW TO READ THE REPORT 24 |
| | 2 STRATEGIC COMMODITIES 26 |
| | 2.1 GENERAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT . 26 |
| | 2.2 THE RUSSIAN APPROACH TO ENERGY AND METALS. 28 |
| | 2.3 COMMODITY DEPENDENCE AND VULNERABILITY. 29 |
| | 2.4 CRUDE OIL . 32 |
| | 2.4.1 Oil Overview 32 |
| | Methodological Considerations of Oil Assessment 32 |
| | 2.4.2 Production of Oil. 33 |
| | The Oil Industry in Russia. 34 |
| | Oil Companies in Russia and Control of the Market 35 |
| | State Pipeline Monopoly by Transneft . 37 |
| | Russia vs. World Production . 38 |
| | Investments in the Oil Sector. 39 |
| | Investment Climate in the Energy Sector . 40 |
| | 2.4.3 Stocks and Reserves of Oil 42 |
| | Further Comments on the Methodology of Oil Reserves Assessments 42 |
| | Location of Russia’s Oil Reserves. 43 |
| | Russia vs. World Reserves 44 |
| | Value of Russian Oil Reserves 45 |
| | 2.4.4 Domestic Consumption of Oil. 45 |
| | Energy Saving . 46 |
| | 2.4.5 Exports of Oil 46 |
| | Russia vs. World Exports 47 |
| | Export Prices for Oil 47 |
| | Export Quotas 49 |
| | Infrastructure for Transport . 49 |
| | 2.4.6 Imports of Russian Oil 50 |
| | Dependence on Russian Oil. 50 |
| | Europe and Russian Oil . 51 |
| | Russian Oil and the World. 52 |
| | 2.4.6 Conclusions - Crude Oil . 53 |
| | 2.5 NATURAL GAS . 55 |
| | 2.5.1 Natural Gas Overview 55 |
| | Methodological Considerations of Gas Assessment. 55 |
| | 2.5.2 Production of Natural Gas . 56 |
| | The Gas Industry in Russia 56 |
| | Russia vs. World Production . 57 |
| | Investments in the Gas Sector . 58 |
| | 2.5.3 Stocks and Reserves of Natural Gas. 59 |
| | Strategic Stocks . 59 |
| | Russian vs. World Reserves 59 |
| | Location of Russia’s Reserves. 60 |
| | 2.5.4 Domestic Consumption of Natural Gas 61 |
| | Usage of Natural Gas in Russia. 61 |
| | Domestic Prices on Natural Gas . 61 |
| | Payment Problems in the Natural Gas Sector . 62 |
| | Causes of Non-payments and Implications for the Market. 63 |
| | 2.5.5 Exports of Natural Gas. 64 |
| | Export Prices on Natural Gas 65 |
| | Transportation Infrastructure and its Political Dimension 65 |
| | 2.5.6 Imports of Russian Natural Gas . 66 |
| | General Dependency of Russian Gas 66 |
| | Europe and Russian Gas 67 |
| | The Nordics and Russian Gas 70 |
| | Asia and Russian Gas 70 |
| | 2.5.7 Conclusions - Natural Gas . 70 |
| | 2.6 ALUMINIUM . 72 |
| | 2.6.1 Aluminium Overview 72 |
| | 2.6.2 Production of Aluminium and Bauxite 73 |
| | The Aluminium Industry in Russia 73 |
| | Primary Aluminium Production . 75 |
| | Russia vs. World Aluminium Production . 75 |
| | Investments in the Aluminium Sector 76 |
| | Russian Bauxite, Nepheline and Apatite Production 77 |
| | Russia vs. World Production of Aluminium Raw Materials. 77 |
| | Location of Production and Extraction. 78 |
| | 2.6.3 Reserves of Bauxite, Nepheline and Apatite . 78 |
| | Raw Material Reserves 79 |
| | 2.6.4 Domestic Consumption of Aluminium 79 |
| | 2.6.5 Exports of Aluminium . 80 |
| | Prices and Value of Aluminium . 80 |
| | 2.6.6 Imports of Russian Aluminium 82 |
| | 2.6.7 Conclusions - Aluminium 84 |
| | 2.7 NICKEL. 86 |
| | 2.7.1 Nickel Overview. 86 |
| | 2.7.2 Production of Nickel 86 |
| | The Nickel Industry in Russia . 87 |
| | Russian Production of Nickel 87 |
| | Russia vs. World Production . 88 |
| | Investments in the Nickel Sector 88 |
| | 2.7.3 Stockpiles and Reserves of Nickel. 89 |
| | Strategic Stockpiles . 89 |
| | Reserves of Nickel. 89 |
| | Location of Nickel Reserves 90 |
| | 2.7.4 Domestic Consumption of Nickel 90 |
| | 2.7.5 Exports of Nickel . 91 |
| | Prices and Value of Nickel 92 |
| | 2.7.6 Nickel Imports by and from Russia. 92 |
| | Russia’s Nickel Imports 93 |
| | Importers of Russian Nickel 93 |
| | 2.7.7 Conclusions - Nickel 95 |
| | 2.8 PALLADIUM 97 |
| | 2.8.1 Palladium Overview . 97 |
| | Methodological Considerations of Palladium Assessments 98 |
| | 2.8.2 Production of Palladium 98 |
| | The Palladium Industry in Russia 99 |
| | 2.8.3 Reserves and Stockpiles of Palladium 100 |
| | Strategic Stockpiles . 100 |
| | Ore Reserves . 101 |
| | 2.8.4 Domestic Consumption of Palladium . 101 |
| | 2.8.5 Exports of Palladium. 102 |
| | Export Policy and Quotas 103 |
| | Prices and Value of Palladium. 103 |
| | Russia and World Supply 105 |
| | 2.8.6 Palladium Imports from Russia 107 |
| | 2.8.7 Conclusions - Palladium 108 |
| | 3 COMMODITIES AND SECURITY 109 |
| | 3.1 THE RUSSIAN NOTION OF SECURITY . 109 |
| | 3.1.1 Economic Security 110 |
| | Promoting Economic Growth 110 |
| | Extending Russian International Influence. 111 |
| | Ensuring Russia’s Economic Independence . 111 |
| | 3.1.2 Reduction of Dependence . 111 |
| | 3.1.3 The Idea of Strategic Stocks . 112 |
| | Rationale of Holding Stocks 112 |
| | Types of Stocks . 112 |
| | Costs of Holding Stocks 113 |
| | Planning Problems. 113 |
| | 3.2 COMMODITIES, SECURITY AND POLITICAL REASONS 114 |
| | 3.2.1 Possible Reasons 114 |
| | 3.3 MANIPULATION OF COMMODITY MARKETS 115 |
| | 3.4 ENERGY POLICY AGAINST INDIVIDUAL STATES 116 |
| | 3.4.1 Georgia 117 |
| | 3.4.2 Ukraine 121 |