| | World in Transition: Basic Structure of Global People- |
| | 1,64 | | MB | Environment Interactions – 1993 Annual Report – |
| | 226 | | stron |
| | 5503 | | ID | Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research |
| | 2001 | | rok |
| | Contents |
| | Outline of Contents V |
| | List of Figures X |
| | List of Tables XI |
| | List of Boxes XII |
| | A Summary – World in Transition: |
| | Basic Structure of Global People-Environment Interactions 1 |
| | B Introduction: The global dimension of the environmental crisis 7 |
| | Is humanity's natural basis at stake? 7 |
| | Human responsibility 7 |
| | The necessity for global action 7 |
| | The task of the Council 8 |
| | C Global change: approaching the research object 9 |
| | 1 Definitions 9 |
| | Global environmental change 9 |
| | Sustainability 10 |
| | 2 Basic structure of interaction between the ecosphere and the anthroposphere 11 |
| | D Global change: Elements of a system analysis 14 |
| | 1 Changes in the ecosphere 14 |
| | 1.1 Atmosphere 14 |
| | 1.1.1 Increase in long-lived greenhouse gases 14 |
| | Brief description 14 |
| | Causes 16 |
| | Effects 17 |
| | Link to global change 17 |
| | Assessment 17 |
| | Impact weighting 18 |
| | Research needs 18 |
| | 1.1.2 Changes in ozone and temperature in the stratosphere 19 |
| | Brief description 19 |
| | Causes 19 |
| | Natural causes 19 Anthropogenic ozone decline 19 |
| | Effects 20 |
| | Ecosphere 20 Anthroposphere 22 Time scale 22 |
| | Link to global change 22 |
| | Need for action 23 |
| | Research needs 25 |
| | 1.1.3 Changes in tropospheric chemistry 25 |
| | Brief description 25 |
| | Causes 26 |
| | Effects 28 |
| | Link to global change 29 |
| | Assessment 29 |
| | Contents VII |
| | Impact weighting 30 |
| | Research needs 30 |
| | 1.2 Climate change 31 |
| | Brief description 31 |
| | Causes 31 |
| | Effects 33 |
| | Link to global change 35 |
| | Assessment 36 |
| | Impact weighting 37 |
| | Research needs 38 |
| | 1.3 Hydrosphere 38 |
| | 1.3.1 Changes in the ocean and cryosphere 39 |
| | Brief description 39 |
| | Causes 39 |
| | Effects 41 |
| | Global effects 41 Regional / local effects 42 Time-related effects 43 |
| | Assessment / need for action 43 |
| | Research needs 44 |
| | 1.3.2 Qualitative and quantitative changes in freshwater 45 |
| | Brief description 45 |
| | Water as a resource 45 Water as a cultural asset 49 |
| | Causes 49 |
| | Local causes 50 Regional causes 51 Global causes 51 |
| | Effects 51 |
| | Ecosphere 51 Anthroposphere 53 Regional differences 54 Time horizons 54 |
| | Link to global change 55 |
| | Assessment / need for action 57 |
| | Demand for water 57 Supply of water 58 Water resource protection 59 Crisis and disaster |
| | management 59 |
| | Elements of a global water strategy 59 |
| | Impact weighting 62 |
| | Research needs 62 |
| | 1.4 Lithosphere/Pedosphere 63 |
| | Brief description 63 |
| | Habitat function 64 Regulation function 64 Utilisation function 64 Soils as vulnerable systems 65 |
| | Causes 65 |
| | Geographical differences in soil degradation 65 |
| | Effects 66 |
| | Habitat function 67 Regulation function 68 Utilisation function 73 |
| | Link to global change 75 |
| | Assessment 76 |
| | Ecological assessment of soils 76 Economic assessment of soils 80 |
| | Weighting 83 |
| | Research needs 84 |
| | 1.5 Biosphere 84 |
| | An overview of the biosphere 85 |
| | 1.5.1 Changes in the biosphere based on the example of the forest 86 |
| | Brief description 86 |
| | Causes 87 |
| | Effects 88 |
| | Biosphere 89 Anthroposphere 90 |
| | Link to global change 90 |
| | Phenomena of the ecosphere 90 Phenomena of the anthroposphere 91 |
| | Assessment 91 |
| | VIII Contents |
| | Need for action 92 |
| | Measures at the international level 93 Measures at the national level 94 |
| | Research needs 96 |
| | 1.5.2 Loss of biodiversity 96 |
| | Brief description 96 |
| | Causes 97 |
| | Link to global change 99 |
| | Assessment 99 |
| | Need for action 102 |
| | Research needs 106 |
| | Area of natural sciences 106 Socioeconomic area 107 |
| | 2 Transformation of the anthroposphere: Introduction 108 |
| | 2.1 Population growth, migration and urbanisation 112 |
| | Short summary 112 |
| | Causes 114 |
| | Causes of high population growth 114 Causes of increasing migration 116 Causes of rapid |
| | urbanisation 119 |
| | Effects 119 |
| | Effects of high population growth 119 Effects of increasing migration 120 Effects of rapid |
| | urbanisation 121 |
| | Links to global change 123 |
| | Atmosphere 123 Water 123 Soils 124 Biodiversity 124 Economic development 124 |
| | Need for action 125 |
| | Research needs 127 |
| | Research field: population growth 127 Research area: migration 127 Research area: urbanisation |
| | 128 |
| | 2.2 Changes in the world economy 128 |
| | Preliminary remarks and definitions 128 |
| | Introduction 128 Growth and development 129 Growth and the market economy 130 |
| | Causes 131 |
| | World economic growth 131 The regional structure of world economic growth 133 |
| | The sectoral structure of world economic growth 139 |
| | Effects 143 |
| | Assessment 146 |
| | Need for action 149 |
| | Political concept 149 Priorities for taking action 151 |
| | Research needs 153 |
| | Assessment of consequential costs and analysis of causes 153 Basic research for political |
| | recommendations 153 System of indicators 154 |
| | 2.3 Increases in transport 154 |
| | Summary 154 |
| | Causes 155 |
| | Effects 160 |
| | Assessment / Need for action 162 |
| | Research needs 163 |
| | 2.4 The human dimension of global environmental change: psychosocial factors 163 |
| | Short description 163 |