If We Fight Iraq: Iraq’s Military Forces And Weapons of Mass

0,58

MB

Destruction

47

stron

5761

ID

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

2003

rok

Table of Contents

IRAQ’S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION – THE SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS OF THE

BRITISH (SEPTEMBER 2002) AND US (OCTOBER 4, 2002) WHITE PAPERS1

British Summary.1

CIA Summary2

IRAQ’S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION – THE CONTENT OF THE BRITISH (SEPTEMBER

2002) AND US (OCTOBER 4, 2002) WHITE PAPERS REPORTING ON KEY DEVELOPMENTS

SINCE UNSCOM ACTIVITY HALTED IN 19984

British Summary of Developments Since in 19984

CIA Estimate of Developments Since 19984

IRAQ’S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION – THE KEY CONTENTS OF THE BRITISH

(SEPTEMBER 2002) AND US (OCTOBER 4, 2002) WHITE PAPERS DEALING WITH CHEMICAL

WEAPONS.6

UK: Chemical Weapons.6

UK: Chemical agents: surviving stocks7

UK: Chemical agent: production capabilities.7

UK: Dual-Use Chemical Facilities.8

Chemical agents: delivery means8

Chemical and biological warfare: command and control.9

Chemical weapons: summary.9

CIA: Chemical Warfare Program.9

IRAQ’S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION – THE KEY CONTENTS OF THE BRITISH

(SEPTEMBER 2002) AND US (OCTOBER 4, 2002) WHITE PAPERS DEALING WITH BIOLOGICAL

WEAPONS11

UK: Biological Weapons11

UK: Biological agents: surviving stocks.12

Biological Weapons Programs12

Dual-Use Chemical and Biological Facilities12

Biological agents: delivery means13

Chemical and biological warfare: command and control.13

Biological weapons: summary13

CIA: Biological Warfare Program14

IRAQ’S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION – THE KEY CONTENTS OF THE BRITISH

(SEPTEMBER 2002) AND US (OCTOBER 4, 2002) WHITE PAPERS DEALING WITH NUCLEAR

WEAPONS16

UK: Nuclear Weapons Programs.16

Iraqi nuclear weapons expertise16

Nuclear weapons: timelines17

CIA: Nuclear Weapons Program17

IRAQ’S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION – THE KEY CONTENTS OF THE BRITISH

(SEPTEMBER 2002) AND US (OCTOBER 4, 2002) WHITE PAPERS DEALING WITH MISSILE

PROGRAMS19

UK: Missile Programs19

The Iraqi ballistic missile programme since 1998.19

CIA: Ballistic Missile Program20

CIA: Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Program and Other Aircraft.22

IRAQ’S WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION – THE KEY CONTENTS OF THE BRITISH

(SEPTEMBER 2002) AND US (OCTOBER 4, 2002) WHITE PAPERS DEALING WITH

PROCUREMENT24

UK: Procurement and Funding24

CIA: Procurement in Support of WMD Programs.24

OVERVIEW OF IRAQ: NBC AND MISSILE PROGRAMS.26

Nuclear.26

Biological.26

Chemical.26

Ballistic Missiles.26

Other Means of Delivery Available.26

IRAQI COVERT BREAK OUT CAPABILITIES.28

IRAQI BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM29

IRAQI CHEMICAL WARFARE PROGRAM30

IRAQ’S MAJOR USES OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS 1983-1988.31

CIA ESTIMATE OF IRAQI USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS: OCTOBER 4, 2002.32

IRAQI BIOLOGICAL WARFARE PROGRAM.33

IRAQI OPEN AIR TESTING OF BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS: AS ACKNOWLEDGED TO UNSCOM34

EFFECTS OF KEY IRAQI WEAPONS AND USE OF SCUD MISSILES35

Effects of Chemical Weapons.35

Effects of biological agents.35

Effect of a 20-kiloton nuclear detonation35

The use of ballistic missiles35

BRITISH HISTORY OF UN WEAPONS INSPECTION EFFORT36

UN Security Council Resolutions relating to Weapons of Mass Destruction36

Iraqi Non-Co-operation with the Inspectors37

Iraq’s policy of deception.37

Intimidation38

Obstruction.38

Iraqi obstruction of UN weapons inspection teams.38

Inspection of Iraq’s biological weapons programme39

Inspection achievements.40

Withdrawal of the inspectors40

Material unaccounted for.40

Operation Desert Fox (16–19 December 1998)41

UNSCOM and IAEA achievements.41

The Situation since 1998.41

UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTIONS AND PROVISIONS FOR INSPECTIONS. AND

MONITORING: THEORY AND PRACTICE: CIA ANALYSIS OCTOBER 4, 200243

Res. 687 (3 April 1991).43

Res. 707 (15 August 1991)43

Res. 715 (11 October 1991)43

Res. 1060 (12 June 1996) and Resolutions 1115, 1134, 1137, 1154, 1194, and 120543

Res. 1154 (2 March 1998)44

Res. 1194 (9 September 1998)44

Res. 1205 (5 November 1998).44

Res. 1284 (17 December 1999).44