Human Health Effects of Ozone Depletion From Stratospheric

1,51

MB

Aircraft

138

stron

5907

ID

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

2001

rok

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 1

Chapter 1. Introduction and Background . 11

1.1 Potential atmospheric and biological impacts of stratospheric flight . 11

1.1.1 How HSCT may contribute to ozone depletion 11

1.1.2 Current assessment of atmospheric impacts from stratospheric aircraft 12

1.1.2.a. NASA’s Assessment of the Effects of High-Speed Aircraft in the Stratosphere . 13

1.1.2.b. Aviation and the Global Atmosphere (IPCC 1999) . 15

1.1.3 Biological effects of stratospheric ozone depletion . 16

1.2 Relevant U.S. and international authorities and agencies . 18

1.2.1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 18

1.2.2 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 20

1.2.3 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) 20

1.2.4 International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) . 21

1.2.5 Montreal Protocol . 22

1.2.6 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) . 23

1.3 Commercial interest in supersonic technologies 25

1.3.1 Civil supersonic transport 25

1.3.2 Space and defense . 26

1.3.3 Supersonic business jets . 26

Chapter 2. Methods 27

2.1 Modeling overview . 29

2.2 Estimated HSCT-induced ozone change 31

2.2.1 NASA assessment selection of source of central values 31

2.2.2 Adaptation of CSIRO data and fleet growth schedule 32

2.2.2.a. Adaptation of CSIRO data 32

2.2.2.b. Specification of fleet growth schedule . 34

2.3 Calculation of UVR change 36

2.4 Calculation of health impacts . 38

2.4.1 Human health endpoints . 41

2.4.2 Other human health and environmental effects . 44

2.4.3 Action spectra . 45

2.4.4 Dose metrics 47

2.5 Model implementation 48

2.6 Uncertainty in estimated impacts 49

2.6.1 Uncertainties associated with change in ozone estimates . 50

2.6.2 Uncertainties associated with change in UVR estimates 53

2.6.3 Uncertainties associated with change in health effect estimates 55

2.6.3.a. Uncertainty in the BAF . 55

2.6.3.b. Uncertainty in population projections . 55

2.6.3.c. Latency . 56

2.6.4 Other sources of uncertainty 57

2.6.4.a. Contributions to unknown uncertainties in change in ozone estimates . 57

2.6.4.b. Contributions to unknown uncertainties in change in health effect estimates 58

2.7 Sensitivity of estimated health impacts to technological and operational change 60

Chapter 3. Results and Discussion . 63

3.1 HSCT impacts of stratospheric ozone concentrations 63

3.1.1 Annual percent change in ozone . 63

3.1.2 Seasonal patterns 65

3.1.3 Latitudinal patterns . 67

3.2 HSCT impacts on UVR 67

3.2.1 Seasonal patterns 70

3.2.2 Latitudinal patterns . 70

3.3 HSCT impacts on human health 70

3.3.1 Total incidence and mortality due to HSCT operation 71

3.3.2 Seasonal patterns 72

3.3.3 Latitudinal patterns . 73

3.3.4 Estimates of annual changes in health effects 74

3.4 Uncertainty analyses . 79

3.4.1 Uncertainties associated with change in ozone estimates . 81

3.4.2 Uncertainties associated with change in UVR estimates 81

3.4.3 Uncertainties associated with change in health effects estimates . 82

3.4.3.a. Uncertainty in population projections . 82

3.4.3.b. Latency . 83

3.4.4 Summary of uncertainty analyses 85

3.5 Sensitivity to technological and operational change . 86

Chapter 4. Synthesis . 89

4.1 Findings in context of past ODS regulatory activities 89

4.1.1 Description of the Montreal Protocol: Amendments and adjustments 89

4.1.2 Comparison of HSCT with ODS policy scenarios 91

4.1.3 Other stratospheric protection actions within and beyond Montreal Protocol requirements . 95

4.2 Applicability of results to other scenarios . 97

Chapter 5. References 99

Appendix A - Overview of Evaluation Methodology . 105

Appendix B - Description of the CSIRO Model 107

Appendix C - Methodological Sensitivity: Use of Relative Versus Absolute Ozone Change . 109

Appendix D - Background Information on RAFs . 111

Appendix E - Information and Future Directions for Cataract Methodology 115

Appendix F - Sensitivity to Choice of Reference Scenario . 119

Appendix G - Summary of ODS Policy Controls . 121