Monsanto & Genetic Engineering: Risks for Investors

0,71

MB

81

stron

5964

ID

Innovest Strategic Value Advisors, Inc.

2005

rok

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .6

INNOVEST STRATEGIC VALUE ADVISORS & THIS REPORT.6

MONSANTO & GENETIC ENGINEERING.6

MONSANTO’S SHARE PRICE (YEAR END 2004) AND LONG TERM VALUE 7

LACK OF REGULATORY OVERSIGHT . 7

MARKET GROWTH .9

MARKET REJECTION9

FOREIGN MARKET REJECTION. 10

DOMESTIC MARKET REJECTION 10

ENVIRONMENTAL AND HUMAN HEALTH RISKS . 11

INEVITABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINATION 11

HUMAN HEALTH RISKS .12

HISTORICAL RISK LIABILITIES 13

CONCLUSION.13

2. MONSANTO STOCK PRICE PROJECTIONS 15

3. GE CROP DEVELOPMENT & ADOPTION 19

4. THE RISKS OF MONSANTO’S GE STRATEGY 23

U. S. FEDERAL REGULATORY PROCESS FOR GE CROPS . 24

MARKETING AND GOALS 28

MARKET RISKS FOR GENETICALLY ENGINEERED CROPS. 29

Increasing Competition in the Bt Corn Market 29

Affects of Roundup Competition 30

Problems with “Value Capture” Outside US.31

Catastrophic Failure Risks. 32

5. ANALYSIS OF THE BENEFITS. 35

Lower Pesticide Use & Increased Yields. 36

6. GE RISKS AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR SHAREHOLDERS 39

MARKET RISKS 39

Consumer Rejection and U.S. Public Opinion . 39

Food Industry Rejection 43

Rejection by Farmers: The GE Wheat Case45

International Markets Shifting to Non-GE crops for Food and Animal Feed.46

INTERNATIONAL REGULATORY RISKS 48

Regional Regulatory Situation.49

Labeling 53

The Biosafety Protocol54

Politics and Genetically Engineered Foods . 55

Insuring Genetically Engineered Crops . 57

ENVIRONMENTAL AND HUMAN HEALTH RISKS58

The Technology.58

Human Health Risks58

Environmental Risks60

7. RISKS BEYOND GENETIC ENGINEERING 63

Traditional Chemical Risks and The Solutia Bankruptcy 63

Agent Orange: Overview & the 1984 Settlement64

Agent Orange: Concerns Beyond U.S. Vietnam Veterans66

8. CONCLUSIONS: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR MONSANTO? 69

REFERENCES 71