Searching for National Security: Threat and Response in the Age

0,42

MB

of Vulnerability

113

stron

6252

ID

Henry L. Stimson Center

1999

rok

Table of Contents

About the Author iii

Preface and Acknowledgments iv

Table of Contents v

List of Tables and Figures vi

Executive Summary vii

Searching for National Security: Threat and Response in the Age of Vulnerability 1

Threats and Their Management 3

Natural and Manufactured Threats 3

Collaborative Threat Management 6

The Special Case of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) 8

Transnational Threats and Transitional States 13

Huddled Masses, Critical Masses 14

Russia’s Struggles 15

Changing Public, Elite and Official Perceptions of Threat 19

Public and Elite Opinion in the US and Europe 19

Threat Perceptions in the United States 19

Threat Perceptions in the European Union 25

Comparing Policy Priorities 28

Assessing US National Security Strategy 31

Reagan and Clinton Strategy, 1988 and 1997 31

Spending Priorities, FY 1989 32

Clinton Strategy, 1997 34

Clinton and Clinton, 1997 versus 1998 35

Spending Priorities, FY 1999 36

Interests and Values 39

Military Supremacy and Asymmetric Threats 41

Vulnerability in the Drivers Seat 42

Taking the Measure of Threat 45

A Systematic Threat Array for the Prudent Paranoid 47

Natural Threats 47

Manufactured Threats 49

A Methodology for Making Comparisons 51

Component Variables 51

Damage Potential 52

Warning 53

Strategic Likelihood 53

Generating Sample Data 58

Measuring Manufactured Threats 58

Measuring Natural Threats 63

A Methodology for Choosing Among Policy Responses 65

Describing Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MAUT) 65

Gauging the Utility of Threat Responses 66

Gauging the Utility of International Cooperation 69

Summary and Conclusions 73