The South Caucasus: A Regional Overview and Conflict

1,98
MB Assessment

106
stron

6261
ID Cornell Caspian Consulting

2002
rok

Table of Contents

Summary and Recommendations 5

Summary 5

Recommendations 7

General Long-Term Recommendations 7

Recommendations for Development and Governance 9

Recommendations for Conflict Prevention . 10

Regional Assessment 13

Recent Political and Economic Developments .13

Political Situation.15

General Political Evolution . 15

Political and Economic Reform Processes in The Region 17

Foreign Relations 19

Political And Economic Relations with Sweden 22

Regional security: Changes after 9/11 22

Human Rights and Civil Society .24

Human Rights . 25

Ethnic and Religious Minorities 26

Gender Issues . 28

Civil Society and Media . 29

Economic Development.31

Structural Reforms. 32

Transport and Communications: The ‘Silk Road’ . 33

Social Development, Health, Poverty .35

Refugees and IDPs . 35

Poverty and Poverty Reduction . 36

Health37

Education . 38

Environmental Issues39

Pollution 39

The Caspian Sea . 40

Deforestation 40

Medzamor 40

Measures 40

Ongoing Activities of Donors 41

USAID Activities. 41

Multilateral Donors . 42

Bilateral donors . 44

4 CAUCASUS: COUNTRY REVIEW

Conflict and Security Assessment 45

Current Status of Active and Potential Conflicts and Security Threats 47

Ethnic Relations and Ethnic Conflicts . 47

Ongoing Conflicts . 48

Processes and Situation in Minority Areas 50

Civil Conflicts and Political Violence 53

Transnational Threats 54

Narcotics and Arms Trafficking 54

Islamic Radicalism 56

The Pankisi Gorge . 57

The Zaqatala Region . 57

Geopolitical Competition and External Threats . 58

Roles and Interests of Regional Powers 58

Competition over Natural Resources . 61

Dangers for Future Instability 62

General Aggravating Factors 62

Weak State Structures 63

Dire Socio-Economic Conditions 63

Political Culture 64

Great Power Meddling . 64

Narcotics and Terrorism . 65

Specific Sources of Concern 65

Risk of new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia 65

Risk of armed conflict in Javakheti . 67

Risk of resumption of hostilities in Abkhazia 68

Risk of succession struggles degenerating into civil conflict 69

Risk of Russian intervention under alleged terrorism framework 70

Risk of strengthening of Islamic radicalism 71

The Role of Development Assistance in Conflict Management .71

Table of Contents for Glossary, Maps,

Appendices and Biographies of Contributors 75