The Role of Nuclear Power in Europe

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MB

134
stron

6280
ID World Energy Council

2007
rok

TABLE OF CONTENTS

WEC OFFICERS AND MEMBER COMMITTEES I

OFICERS OF THE WORLD ENERGY COUNICL.I

STUDY GROUP MEMBERS II

FOREWORDIII

TABLE OF CONTENTS V

CHAPTER 1: ELECTRICITY IN EUROPE 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Overview of the Current Electricity Production in Europe. 4

1.3 The Age Factor. 5

1.4 Key Issues Raised by the Current Energy Mix . 6

1.4.1 Carbon Emissions and the Growth in Demand 7

1.4.2 Security of Supply7

1.4.3 Relevant Nuclear Issues .7

1.4.4 Physical Security of Nuclear Power Plants 8

1.5 General Remarks . 8

ANNEX 1-A: 2004 Installed Capacity in WEC European Countries (MWe) . 9

ANNEX 1-B: 2004 Electricity Production in WEC European Countries (TWh) . 10

ANNEX 1-C: Key Data on Electricity Production, Energy Dependence and CO2 Emissions . 11

CHAPTER 2: OPERATING NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IN EUROPE 12

2.1 Status of Nuclear Power Plants in Europe 12

2.1.1 Installed Nuclear Capacity .12

2.1.1.1 European Union (EU) . 12

2.1.1.2 Europe . 13

2.1.2 Nuclear versus Total Generating Capacity.15

2.1.2.1 European Union (EU) . 15

2.1.2.2 Europe . 16

2.2 Economics and Performance of the Existing Nuclear Power Plants. 16

2.2.1 Introduction.16

2.2.2 Structure of Generation Costs 16

2.2.2.1 Capital Costs 16

2.2.2.2 O&M Costs 17

2.2.2.3 Fuel Costs 18

2.2.2.4 Other Costs 18

2.2.3 External Costs 20

2.2.4 Conclusions.20

2.2.5 References.20

2.3 Life Extension and Power Upratings . 21

2.3.1 Reactors’ age, Licensed Life (Including Extensions Granted or Planned).21

2.3.2 Panorama of Planned Reactors Closure without Life Extensions 22

2.3.3 Relative Value of Existing and Potential Power Increases. Power Uprates that have been

implemented, in Progress or Planned.23

2.4 Status and Strategies on Radioactive Waste Management and Decommissioning 25

2.4.1 Introduction.25

2.4.2 Inventory of Radioactive Waste and Spent Fuel25

2.4.3 Institutional System .28

2.4.3.1 General Requirements 28

2.4.3.2 Organisational structure 28

2.4.3.3 Responsibilities of Waste Generators . 29

2.4.3.4 Responsibilities of National Waste Management Organisations 29

2.4.4 Financial and Economic Considerations31

2.4.4.1 Funding Arrangements . 31

2.4.5 Public Communication.32

2.4.6 Decommissioning of Nuclear Facilities .33

2.4.7 EU Strategies .34

2.5 Public Acceptance 34

2.5.1 Euro barometer Results34

2.5.2 Public Attitude Towards Nuclear Energy 34

2.5.3 Ongoing Debates and Discussions.35

2.6 Governmental and Industrial Outlook for Nuclear Power 36

2.6.1 EU Policy.36

2.6.2 Government Position in Key Countries and Future Plans36

2.6.2.1 The EU-25 . 36

2.6.2.2 Recent EU Members (Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania) 37

2.6.2.3 Other European Countries (Switzerland, Russia, Ukraine, Serbia). 38

2.6.3 Industrial Preferences in Key Countries.38

2.6.4 Obstacles to Further Development.38

ANNEX 2-A: Description of External Costs (ExternE) 40

ANNEX 2-B: External costs for electricity production in Euro-cents/kWh 41

ANNEX 2-C: US Nuclear Industry Production Costs. 42

ANNEX 2-D: Comparison of Availability Factors between North America and Europe 42

ANNEX 2-E: Nuclear Production Cost in Spain . 43

ANNEX 2-F: Worldwide Trend of Burnup and Enrichment. 43

ANNEX 2-G: Uranium Price Development (US$/lb) 44

CHAPTER 3: DEVELOPMENT OF NEW NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS WITH EXISTING

TECHNOLOGIES (2010/2030) . 45

3.1 NPP Technologies Available on the Market 46

3.1.1 General Performance Objectives46

3.1.2 Unit Capacity .47

3.1.3 List of Reactors under Consideration in this Chapter 48

3.1.4 High Temperature Reactors (HTR)48

3.2 Nuclear Fuel Cycle. 49

3.3 Radwaste and decommissioning . 53

3.4 Economics of New Nuclear Power Plants 55

3.4.1 Proposed Best Estimates of OVN Construction Costs and Time Length in Europe 57

3.4.1.1 Estimates are Available for Ongoing Projects in Europe 58

3.4.1.2 Construction Time 59

3.4.2 Operation & Maintenance (O&M).59

3.4.3 Fuel Cost 60

3.4.4 Decommissioning Cost 61

3.4.5 Conclusion: Best Estimated Cost Ranges 62

3.5 Discussion on Financing and Discount Rate Values . 63

3.5.1 Finding Reference Values for the Cost of Capital (WACC)64

3.5.2 Risk Analysis Governing WACC Value67

3.5.2.1 Market risk. 67

3.5.2.2 The Regulatory Risk. 69

3.5.2.3 The Lead Time Risk . 69

3.5.2.4 The Political Risk . 70

3.5.3 Conclusion .70

3.6 Regulatory Framework and Licensing Procedures 71

3.6.1 The Finnish Case – Olkiluoto 3 .71

3.6.1.1 Summary of Key Milestones 71

3.6.1.2 Comments on Different Licensing and Project Phases . 72

3.6.2 The French Case (Flamanville 3).75

3.6.3 The US Case (No Construction Commitment Yet)76

3.6.4 National Regulations Across Europe: Towards Harmonisation.78

3.7 Industrial and Technical Infrastructure 79

3.8 Public Acceptance 80

3.9 Energy Policy Framework 82

3.9.1 EU-2582

3.9.2 Other Western European Countries .83

3.9.3 Eastern European countries83

3.9.4 Russia83

3.9.5 References. 85

ANNEX 3-A: Description of Selected Technologies 86

ANNEX 3-B: Full Cost of Generation: Main Results of the OECD/NEA-IEA Report (2005) 89

ANNEX 3-C: Generation costs (US-cent/kWh) for nuclear build of existing designs calculated at a

lifetime of 40 years, 5% discount rate and base year 2003.90

ANNEX 3-D: Generation costs (US-cent/kWh) for nuclear build of existing designs calculated at a

lifetime of 40 years, 10% discount rate and base year 2003.90

ANNEX 3-E: OECD 2005 Study – Countries where mean levelised cost of nuclear in base-load is

the cheapest option (10% discounting) .91

ANNEX 3-F: OECD 2005 Study – Countries where mean levelised cost of nuclear in base-load is

not the cheapest option (10% discounting).91

CHAPTER 4: NUCLEAR POWER WITH NEW TECHNOLOGIES. 92

4.1 The Stakes for Future Nuclear Energy Systems . 92

4.2 Key Technologies for Future Nuclear Energy Systems 94

4.2.1 Sustainable Nuclear Energy.94

4.2.2 Very/High Temperature Nuclear Process Heat and Hydrogen Production96

4.3 Plea for Strong Involvement of Europe in 4th Generation Nuclear Systems 96

4.3.1 Stakes of 4th Generation Nuclear Systems for Europe .96

4.3.2 Status of 4th Generation Nuclear Systems in the European R&D Programme.97

4.3.3 Towards a “Sustainable Nuclear Fission Technology Platform” .99

4.4 Prepare the Transition from Light Water Reactors to Fast Reactors 100

4.5 From Fission to Fusion 102

4.6 Future Prospects 102

4.7 References. 104

ANNEX 4-A: The Generation IV International Forum 105

ANNEX 4-B: Brief Survey of National Programmes 109

ANNEX 4-C: Brief Survey of Contributions of the Euratom R&D Framework 112

CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS 118

5.1 European Energy Realities 118

5.2 Main Issues . 118

5.3 Outlook . 119

APPENDIX A - List of Abbreviations/Acronyms 121